達沃斯愁云未散

????上周，全球商界和政界領導人齊聚達沃斯，出席今年的世界經濟論壇，主題為——“為持久發展注入活力”(Resilient Dynamism)。不過，沒人會把這個刻意樂觀的主題當真。當前時世困頓：世界經濟頂多算得上盤整，前方可能還有更多難以預料的艱險——從社會動蕩到致命細菌，再到毀滅性的自然災害(近年來，自然災害發生的頻率和造成的損失都呈現上升態勢)，不一而足。

????在達沃斯小鎮普羅姆納街上，每晚還能看到些社交聚會舉行真是件幸事。與會者的神經都繃得太緊了，對話和研究報告里無不是混亂、脆弱等辭令。一些日常的擔憂，像華盛頓的政治斗爭、政府負債、稅負上升，甚至是歐元區解體的前景，都已退居其次。

????最先挑起這股憂慮情緒的，是上周二晚間普華永道(PriceWaterhouseCoopers)全球董事長戴瑞禮公布的普華永道對全球68個國家1,330位首席執行官的年度調查結果。調查顯示，只有36%的受訪者“非常有信心”看到2013年收入強勁增長，低于2012年的40%，也低于2011年美國經濟衰退后令人吃驚的48%。

????考慮到總體經濟環境，這樣的結果也不是很令人意外。正如報告所指，目前歐元區仍陷于衰退，美國經濟預計將只有2.2%的增幅(失業率保持高位)，金磚四國的經濟增速可能放緩。至于經濟增長預期，CEO們沒有像去年那么悲觀，去年有近半的受訪者擔心全球經濟可能出現負增長，今年大多數人預計2013年全球經濟增長將持平。

????調查還顯示，企業可能會潛心培育本地市場的增長(特別是美國公司，本地市場增長被視為2013年主要的增長動力)和提高客戶忠誠度。另一項策略是“提高靈活性”，潛臺詞無疑是可能會有不好的意外出現，需要做好準備。

????CEO們非常謹慎，正如這項研究指出，過去30年金融危機爆發的次數已超過了過去350年的總和，從當前的主權債務危機到之前為美國為首的經濟衰退，再到90年代的俄羅斯和亞洲危機。

????同樣呈現上升的還有自然災害。自然災害的數量和強度均呈現加速上升。2011年日本海嘯造成的損失和危害占據榜首，其次是2005年的卡特里娜颶風、2008年的中國大地震和去年的桑迪颶風(在新澤西州和紐約州沿海造成嚴重損毀)。

????雖然眼下圍繞“中國經濟放緩對全球經濟構成拖累”的種種討論正熱，但在調查中，CEO們更擔心的是本國社會動蕩、美國經濟衰退、毀滅性的網絡攻擊、自然災害、歐元區解體以及流行性疫情(降序排列)等風險。

????World business and government leaders are gathering here for this year's World Economic Forum meeting -- titled "resilient dynamism." But no one is fooled by the consciously upbeat title. These are sour times, with the global economy moving sideways at best, and flocks of black swans swimming on the horizon – from threats of social unrest to killer bacteria to deadly natural disasters that appear to be growing in frequency and cost.

????It's a good the town's Promenade hums with well-lubed parties every night because nerves are frayed, with words like disruption and fragilitydominating the conversation and research, making the usual concerns -- like Washington's political wars, government debt, rising tax burdens, even the prospect of a Eurozone breakup --look like mere nuisance costs.

????PriceWaterhouseCoopers International Chair Dennis Nally started setting the dark mood Tuesday night with the release of his company's annual survey of 1,330 CEOs in 68 countries showing that only 36% are "very confident" of seeing strong revenue growth in 2013—compared to 40% last year and a (by comparison) positively giddy 48% in post-U.S. recession 2011.

????That's not too surprising given an economic environment where the Eurozone is stuck in recession, the U.S. economy is predicted to grow at a paltry 2.2% (keeping American unemployment rates high) and the BRIC countries are facing a slow down, as the report notes. While CEOs aren't as pessimistic as last year – when nearly half of those surveyed feared a global contraction—most expect flat global growth in 2013.

????The survey shows companies hunkering down, focusing on building growth in their own markets (especially U.S. companies, where local market expansion is the primary 2013 growth driver), and building customer loyalty. The other strategy: "A shift to resilience" – code for preparing for nasty surprises.

????CEOs are hyper-conscious that, as the study notes, there have been more financial crises in the past 30 years -- from today's sovereign debt crisis in Europe to yesterday's U.S.-led recession to the Russia and Asia crises of the '90s -- than the preceding 350 years taken together.

????The same holds for natural disasters, which are coming at an increasingly fast and furious rate. Japan's 2011 tsunami tops the cost and destruction list, followed by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the 2008 China earthquake and last year's Hurricane Sandy, which devastated the coasts of New Jersey and New York.

????For all the talk about China's economic slowdown producing a drag on the global economy, the CEOs surveyed were far more worried about social unrest in their own countries, the prospect of a U.S. recession, crippling cyber attacks, natural disasters, a Eurozone breakup and health pandemics (in that order).