達美千萬不要收購維珍

????達美航空（Delta）謀求收購維珍大西洋航空（Virgin Atlantic）之舉可能是個天大的錯誤。雖說投資一家航空公司在任何時候都是有風險的，不過在今天看來，與維珍大西洋航空聯姻對于達美航空來說顯得尤其不明智。這筆交易有可能危害達美航空的市場，并且違反達美航空與歐洲合作伙伴簽訂的反壟斷協議，同時在這個過程中又會花掉大量現金。另外，這起收購還會給達美航空帶來兩重額外的威脅，首先它會面臨更嚴格的政府監管，同時維珍航空的創始人、充滿傳奇色彩的理查德·布蘭森爵士也不是省油的燈，因此這筆交易的風險大于任何它可能帶來的利益。

????新加坡航空公司（Singapore Airlines）本周一在一份簡短的聲明中宣布，將出售其持有的維珍航空49%的股份。消息傳出，市場并沒有太過驚訝。新航與維珍航空的合作始于1999年，不過由于新航的這筆投資賠得很慘，因此新航不得不在財報中一再把這筆股份的價值寫低。一開始這些股份的市值為16億美元，到了今年，其價值基本已接近為零。

????至于新加坡航空與維珍的聯姻為何以失敗告終，坊間總結的各種原因很多。新航希望通過這筆投資能夠使它在航空業最有錢賺的領域——也就是美國和歐洲之間的洲際航班上占有一席之地。不過雙方都未能達成任何有意義的合作協議來實現這個目標。實際上，雙方真正實現班號共用還是去年的事，而這種合作10年之前就應該開始了。

????多年尋找下家無果后，新航的惡夢或許終于可以結束了。因為達美航空對維珍航空拋出了橄欖枝。維珍航空最吸引人的資產是它的跨大西洋航線。它十分有利可圖，尤其是紐約飛倫敦的航線。維珍航空在倫敦的希思羅機場擁有一些極有價值的機位，早已令達美航空覬覦已久。一般認為，維珍航空會將這些機位轉讓給達美航空，讓達美借助這家英國航空公司的力量，把它的帝國版圖擴展到歐洲。

????對達美航空來說，這似乎是理所應當的做法，但這筆交易的麻煩其實很可能大于它的價值。首先，如果達美航空想在希思羅機場更有作為，它還不如從另一家航空公司那里買機位，因為那樣更便宜也更容易。何況維珍航空為什么要把它的機位轉讓給達美航空呢？德勤會計師事務所（Deloitte）指出，與大多數媒體報道的恰恰相反，維珍航空在希思羅機場的機位并沒那么多，它只擁有該機場3%到5%的機位，并且全部自用，而且大多數航線也是達美航空自己也運營的航線。不妨問問新加坡航空從維珍航空那里獲得了多少個機位——答案是零。最近新加坡航空需要在希思羅機場為一趟新航班配置一個機位，結果它還是從南非航空（South African Airways）那里買的。

????至于旅客轉機的情況又如何呢？有人認為維珍和達美應實現班號共用，讓維珍航空的旅客在約翰肯尼迪機場直接轉機搭乘達美的航班，反過來達美的旅客也可以在希思羅機場直接轉乘維珍的航班。不過你在希思羅機場轉過機嗎？這個機場總是人滿為患，旅客每次轉機都要遭一回罪。而且，如果你認為維珍航空的創始人理查德·布蘭森爵士會讓從田納西州來的美國旅客進他那位于希思羅機場3號航站樓的專用“俱樂部”休息室里等候轉機嗎？事實上，就連新加坡航空公司的頭等艙旅客也進不去。

????Delta could be making a big mistake pursuing Virgin Atlantic. While investing in an airline is a risky venture at any time, a tie-up with Virgin today looks particularly bad for the Atlanta-based carrier. The deal could jeopardize Delta's marketing and anti-trust agreements with its European partners, while burning up a bunch of cash in the process. In addition, Delta would have to deal with the twin threats of increased government scrutiny on one hand, and Virgin founder Sir Richard Branson's larger-than-life ego on the other, outweighing any benefit that could come from such a deal.

????The markets weren't too surprised Monday when Singapore Airlines released a terse statement that it has entered talks to sell its?49% stake in Virgin Atlantic. The partnership that began in 1999 between the two airlines had become so unprofitable that Singapore was forced to write down the value of its stake in Virgin from S$1.6 billion to basically zero this year.

????There is plenty of blame to go around as to why Singapore wasn't able to make its venture with Virgin work. Singapore hoped the partnership would help it gain a foothold in the most profitable segment in the airline business – the transatlantic route between the U.S. and Europe. But both parties failed at executing any meaningful partnership agreements to allow that to happen; in fact, it was only last year that the two started codesharing their flights, something that should have happened a decade ago.

????But after years of fruitlessly searching for a buyer, Singapore's long, Richard Branson-fueled nightmare could be coming to an end. Enter Delta Air Lines (DAL). Virgin's allure remains its lucrative Trans-Atlantic routes, specifically the New York to London route. Virgin has a number of extremely valuable landing "slots" at Heathrow Airport, which Delta covets. The conventional view here is that Virgin will transfer those slots to Delta, allowing it to expand its empire in the only other major European player.

????While some see this as a "no-brainer," for Delta, any deal actually looks to be more trouble than it's worth. First, if Delta wants greater access to Heathrow, it would be cheaper and easier to just buy some slots from another airline, preferably one that it doesn't compete against. Why would Virgin turn over any of it slots to Delta, anyway? Contrary to most media reports, Virgin isn't some Heathrow gold mine slot machine, it only controls around 3% to 5% of them and uses all of them, mostly on routes that Delta already serves, according to Deloitte. Just ask Singapore how many slots it got from its deal with Virgin: zero. Indeed, when Singapore recently needed a slot pair for a new flight out of Heathrow it was forced to buy them from South African Airways.

????But what about connecting passengers? The thinking here is that Virgin Atlantic and Delta could codeshare flights to let Virgin passengers connect to points in the US out of JFK Airport on Delta, while Delta passengers could do the same on Virgin flights out of Heathrow. Have you ever connected through Heathrow to another destination? To save you the misery, the airport is always stuffed to capacity, making connecting a terrible experience for passengers. And if you think Sir Richard Branson is going to let Delta passengers from Chattanooga into his exclusive "clubhouse" lounge in Heathrow's Terminal 3, you better think again. Not even first class passengers on Singapore Airlines can gain entry.