谷歌新品提前泄密背后的真相

????這份低于預期的財報表明，我們正處在佩奇所說的遭遇“困難”的道路上。不過我們有理由相信佩奇對谷歌的長期展望言之有理。即便是現在，事情也沒有那么糟糕。舉個例子，谷歌稱手機的收入每年達到80億美元，而其中“絕大多數”都來自廣告收入。相比一年前25億美元的手機廣告收入，可以看出谷歌將市場向手機轉變進展不錯。此外，如果不考慮海外貨幣的疲軟造成的沖擊，谷歌的整體收益還會顯著提高。

????“谷歌核心業務的基礎依然十分牢固，”麥格理證券公司（Macquarie Securities）的分析師本?沙克特在收益報告發布后為投資者撰文時寫道。沙克特還提到，除去摩托羅拉（Motorola）這個加入谷歌不到一年的新成員，谷歌的收益已經上升至23.7%。他認為：“這個數據很適合用來估量核心業務的表現，而且看起來收益還是不錯的?！?/p>

????我們再想想：即便在周四令人震驚地跌落了60美元，谷歌的股價在最近三個月內漲幅依舊達到20%。這一數值要好過亞馬遜（漲幅13%）、蘋果（漲幅4%）、微軟（跌幅3%）和Facebook（跌幅35%）。（回顧上一年，蘋果的股票表現要遠優于谷歌。）

????收聽了收益電話會議之后，還有一件事情讓我觸動。今年年初，谷歌的威脅大都來自Facebook和社交媒體。所以當Google+在第一季度的電話會議中被提及了18次，在第二季度的電話會議中被提及了26次時，大家都不以為奇。但這次呢？只提到了兩次。硅谷的一切變得真快啊。

????譯者：嚴匡正

????The weaker-than-expected financial report suggests that we are in the midst of Page's "disruption" phase. But there is reason to believe Page is right about Google's long-term prospects. And even now, things are not exactly dire. For one, Google said that mobile revenue is coming in at a rate of $8 billion a year, and that the "vast majority" of that is from ads. Compare that to the $2.5 billion in mobile ad revenue a year ago, and you could conclude that the transition to mobile is going fairly well for Google. What's more, if you discount the negative impact from weakening currencies overseas, Google's overall revenue would have been significantly higher.

????"The top-line fundamentals for Google's core business are solid," Ben Schachter, an analyst with Macquarie Securities, wrote in a note to investors following the earnings report. Noting that Google's revenue, excluding Motorola which was not part of the company a year, was up 23.7%, Schachter added: "This is the proper measure of the core business and it is fine."

????And consider this: Even after the shocking $60 drop Thursday, Google's share price is up about 20% over the past three months, better than Amazon (up 13%), Apple (AAPL) (up 4%), Microsoft (down 3%) or Facebook (FB) (down 35%). (If you go back a year, Apple's stock significantly outperformed Google's.)

????After listening to the earnings call, one more thing struck me. As the year opened, the threat to Google appeared to come largely from Facebook and social. So it's no surprise that Google+ received 18 mentions in the earnings call for the first quarter, and 26 mentions in the following quarter. This time? Just two mentions. In Silicon Valley, things change very fast indeed.