谷歌新品提前泄密背后的真相

????聽說谷歌（Google）提早發布的聲明了嗎？不，我說的不是10月19日上午比預期提前幾個小時發布的財報。這次泄密使谷歌股價立遭重挫，截至納斯達克收市時已下跌了9%。

????谷歌在周四又出了一次時間上紕漏。那天，我正坐在位于舊金山的谷歌辦公室里，聽著該公司新產品Chromebook筆記本電腦的演示會。這款產品原本計劃于當日晚些時候推出。但是，我在谷歌搜索欄中輸入“Chromebook”，結果顯示的第一個搜索結果居然就是這個仍處于保密階段的產品頁面。天哪！

????我之所以提到Chromebook的發布會，是因為我們或許能借此正確地分析出谷歌提前發布這份令人失望的財報背后的原因。Chromebook在一年多前首次銷售時就成績平平。這種電腦的功能有限，而且缺乏完善的操作系統，充其量只是一個增強版的網頁瀏覽器，只能在有Wifi信號的區域使用。

????而三星（Samsung）Chromebook這款新產品看起來則有點像一本“超級書冊”。它輕便（2.5磅），超?。?.8英寸），有很長的電池續航時間（6.5小時），還可以免費使用100GB的谷歌在線云存儲，播放1080p的高清視頻。最棒的是，它的售價僅為249美元。這一切都比早期那個又大又笨重、售價至少349美元的版本更有吸引力。谷歌Chrome的高級副總裁桑達?皮采認為，這個價位能讓一般家庭將它作為一臺額外的家庭電腦來使用。比如在廚房放上一臺，或是給孩子買上一臺。皮采說：“我們真的希望這款產品能適合家庭中的每個成員使用?！?/p>

????沒人能保證周一上市的全新Chromebook能夠大賣。不過與那些使用最新微軟（Microsoft）Windows系統、而且更加昂貴的競爭對手相比，這款產品勢必更受矚目。我覺得，谷歌開發Chromebook的初衷——發明一臺能聯網、而且不需要軟件升級和管理的計算機，是谷歌長期致力于科技研發的一個象征。Chromebook的研發始于2009年，當時谷歌首次發布了Chrome OS操作系統。如今谷歌將賭注加倍，策劃出這款新產品的營銷計劃。消費者能在500家百思買（Best Buy）門店、亞馬遜網上商城（Amazon.com）和谷歌在線商店（Google’s Play store）買到這款產品。

????盡管谷歌不是所有的長期努力都獲得了成功，但重要的是，谷歌還擁有YouTube、谷歌地圖、Chrome瀏覽器和安卓（Android）系統。它們彌補了谷歌偶爾的失敗，并讓谷歌多年來一直都走在科技領域的最前沿。

????當然，如果谷歌掙錢的能力開始下降，這一切都只能成為蒼白的粉飾。再讓我們回頭來看看那份令人失望的財報。銷售額低于分析師的預期。（谷歌向來不提供對自身的預估。）利潤開始下降。和一年前相比，廣告商為每次廣告點擊所支付的費用下降了15%，這讓投資者們感到十分恐慌。使用移動設備進行搜索所產生的利潤也不如使用個人電腦搜索帶來的利潤高，這一點則加劇了投資者們的恐慌。

????周二，谷歌在亞利桑那州召開了Zeitgeist年會，我借此機會向谷歌CEO佩奇提出了這個問題，下面是他回答的要點。

????佩奇說：“人們希望能夠隨時隨地使用電腦，這個需求能給我們提供很多機遇。我認為，貨幣化將會加速，會產生更多的機遇，我們的產品也將更好地為人類服務。我認為谷歌非常明白這個道理，因此這對我們而言是件好事，而不是障礙?！彼€說：“人們在經歷這些變化時可能會遇到一些困難，不過我們開發的許多產品在智能手機上都運行得非常好?！保ㄔ谥芩呐c財務分析師的電話中，佩奇給出了類似的回答。）

????Did you hear about Google's premature announcement? No, not the mid-morning earnings release, hours ahead of schedule, which sent Google shares plummeting 9% before trading had to be halted on the Nasdaq.

????On Thursday Google (GOOG) suffered from another untimely leak. As I sat inside Google's San Francisco office listening to a presentation on the company's new Chromebook laptop, which was to be publicly unveiled later in the day, I googled "Chromebook" and the first result that came up was the product page for the still secret device. Oops.

????The reason I mention the Chromebook announcement is that it may help put Google's early and disappointing earnings announcement in perspective. Chromebooks, which first began selling a little over a year ago, have hardly been a success. They have limited capabilities, and since they don't run a full-fledged operating system, but rather a sort of Web browser on steroids, they are meant to be used within range of a Wifi connection.

????But the new Samsung Chromebook, as this device is called, looks a bit like an "ultra-book." It is elegant, light (2.5 pounds), thin (0.8 inches) and is said to have a long battery life (6.5 hours). It comes with 100GB of free cloud storage on Google Drive and runs 1080p video. Best of all, it is priced at just $249. All that makes it far more attractive than earlier, bulkier models, whose prices started at $349 and up. Sundar Pichai, senior vice president of Chrome at Google, said the pricing would allow families to use them as extra machines to have around the house. Leave one in the kitchen, perhaps, or hand one to the kids. "We really want this to be for everyone in the family," Pichai said.

????There is no guarantee that the new Chromebook, which goes on sale Monday, will be a hit. But it's bound to look attractive when compared to competing devices running new versions of Microsoft (MSFT) Windows, which will be more expensive. And more to my point, the whole Chromebook initiative -- creating a Web-connected computer that requires no software upgrades or management -- is emblematic of the kind of long-term technology bet Google is known for. The Chromebook effort began in 2009, when Google first announced the Chrome OS operating system. Now the company is doubling down on that bet, planning a marketing campaign to promote the new machine, which will be available at 500 Best Buys (BBY), and online on Amazon.com (AMZN) and Google's Play store.

????Not all of Google's long-term bets have been successful. But what matters is that those that have - YouTube, Maps, the Chrome browser and Android, for example -- have more than compensated for the duds, and they have kept Google at the forefront of the tech industry for years.

????Of course, all that would turn into window dressing if Google's ability to make money starts to sputter. And that brings me back to the disappointing earnings report. Sales missed analysts' projections. (Google has a practice of not providing its own forecasts.) Profit was down. Investors were especially rattled by the fact that the price that advertisers pay for every click dropped 15%, compared to a year earlier. That heightened persistent fears among investors that search on mobile devices may not be as profitable as on PCs.

????On Tuesday, at Google's Zeitgeist conference in Arizona, I had the opportunity to ask Page precisely that question. Here's are the salient points of he made.

????"There is so much opportunity based on always having a computer with you knowing where it is," Page said. "I think monetization is going to go up. Opportunities are going to go up, products are going to work better for people. I think Google is pretty good at understanding that, so I think that's a benefit to us, not a hindrance." He added: "There will be some disruption as people go through those changes. But a lot of the things we do work great on a smartphone." (Page gave similar answers on Thursday during a call with financial analysts.)