新興市場教父：中國經濟不會崩盤

你對歐元區的前景相對樂觀。為什么？

????首先，我認為很多人太沒耐心。他們沒有意識到歐洲人做事可能總是比世界上其他地方慢很多。我認為，終有一天，他們將找出解決方法。而且，如果回頭看看，所有那些聳人聽聞的警告所講的那些可怕事情最終并沒有在歐洲發生。我們仍將等待希臘退出歐元區，但這一幕至今還沒有發生。

那么，您購買歐洲發展中國家的股票嗎？

????我們專注于那些至少有50%利潤來自新興市場的公司。因此，我們傾向于進入羅馬尼亞、波蘭和匈牙利。我們一直在購買銀行股。奧地利銀行Raiffeisen Bank就是一個很好的例子。它在整個東歐擁有龐大的網絡，特別是在俄羅斯，它是最大的外資銀行之一。該股承壓是因為投資者對歐洲的整體看法所致。

為什么不購買一些從新興市場獲得大部分利潤的發達國家公司？

????這種間接的方式不能帶來完全的投資敞口?？赡芙o你50%，然后你會被剩下的一半業務所拖累，因為這部分業務增長緩慢或遲緩。但也有機會，比方說像雅芳（Avon Products)這樣的公司。該公司出了一些問題。股價大跌。但它有60%以上的利潤來自新興市場，而且還在增長。因此，這是一只我們可以買入的股票，可以用一種廉價的方式進入一些市場。大型跨國公司在這些市場已經收購了富有吸引力的本土消費品公司。

覆蓋廣泛的MSCI新興市場指數目前的股息收益率接近3%。新興市場是收益投資者的樂園嗎？

????投資者一直要求從新興市場公司身上獲得更高的回報，因為它們的感知風險更高。這里需要強調的是“感知風險”。股息問題的另一個原因是，這些國家有很多公司都是由國家控制，而政府要求獲得派息。它們想要回報。因此，中國公司（比如中國石油）的投資者們就享有不錯的派息?；蛘咴诎臀?，你也會看到巴西石油公司（Petrobras）支付相當不錯的派息。我們持有這兩家公司的股票。

第三輪量化寬松政策（QE3）對于你投資的新興市場意味著什么？

????總的來說是件好事，因為它向全球體系注入了更多流動性，而這些流動性需要找個家。我們一直有些意外，比方說，我們的前沿市場基金（Frontier Markets Fund）在兩年前推出后已經吸引了12億美元的資金。資金流的大量增長給我們帶來了收益。

????譯者：早稻米

You are relatively bullish on the prospects for the eurozone. Why?

????First of all, I think a lot of people have been too impatient. They don't realize the European psyche tends to take things much slower than maybe other parts of the world. I think at the end of the day they are going to come to a solution. And if you look back, the dire warnings of all these terrible things that were going to happen in Europe haven't happened. We're still waiting for Greece to exit, and it hasn't happened.

So are you buying stocks in developing countries within Europe?

????We have to concentrate only on those companies that have at least 50% of their assets' earnings in emerging markets. So we would tend to be in places like Romania, Poland, and Hungary. We've been buying banks. Raiffeisen Bank in Austria is a good example. It has a tremendous network throughout Eastern Europe, and, particularly in Russia, it's one of the largest foreign banks. The stock is depressed because of the general attitude toward Europe.

Why not buy a developed-market company that gets a large portion of its earnings from emerging markets?

????The indirect way unfortunately doesn't give you the full exposure. It gives you maybe 50%, and then you're stuck with the other half, which is slow-growing or slower-growing. But there are opportunities, such as a company like Avon Products (AVP). It's had problems. The stock is way down. But over 60% of its earnings are in emerging markets and growing. So that's a company that we buy because it's a way to get in cheaply to markets where large multinationals have already acquired the juicy local consumer companies.

The broad MSCI Emerging Markets index now has a dividend yield of almost 3%. Are emerging markets a good play for income investors?

????Investors have been demanding better returns from emerging-market companies because of their higher perceived risk. Underline the words "perceived risk." The other reason for the dividends is that a lot of the companies in these countries are state-controlled, and the governments demand dividends. They want returns. So investors in Chinese companies -- for example, PetroChina (PTR) -- see nice dividends coming their way. Or in Brazil you will see Petrobras (PBR) paying pretty healthy dividends. We own both of those stocks.

What does QE3 mean for the emerging markets where you invest?

????Generally speaking, it's very good because it pours more liquidity into the system globally, and that liquidity needs a home. We have been quite surprised, for instance, that our Frontier Markets Fund (TFMAX) has attracted $1.2 billion since it was introduced two years ago. We get the benefit of a tremendous boost in flows.