新興市場教父：中國經濟不會崩盤

????這些年來，馬克?莫比烏斯贏得了不少稱號，比如“新興市場教父”、“環球旅行家”等，所有這些稱號都源于同一個事實：這位現年73歲的投資者長時間以來一直是華爾街最愛冒險的投資者之一。他投資發展中市場已經長達40多年，對世界增長最快的地區擁有罕見的洞察力。如今莫比烏斯擔任著弗蘭克林-鄧普頓（Franklin Templeton）新興市場集團董事長的職位，管理著450億美元的資產，正在押下與眾不同的賭注。他認為，中國超強的增長趨勢將得以延續，而歐洲能通過自救，避免毀滅。對于中國，他表示，“人們過于悲觀了?！痹跉W洲，他認為即使決策層仍在努力忙著解決大問題，一些規模較小的國家頗有價值。（他對此充滿信心。）喜歡穿白西裝、打亮色領帶的莫比烏斯從他在新加坡的辦公室接受了《財富》雜志（Fortune）記者的電話采訪。以下是經過編輯的采訪摘要：

現在，很多人對于中國的GDP增長都持懷疑態度。您說增長率是7%。這是真的嗎？

????我知道，很多人都質疑中國發布的數據，但如果看與中國相關的獨立數據，比方說，從西方、從日本、從德國出口到中國的數據來看，你會發現，增長率還是非常不錯的。如今，很顯然，增長正在減速，但并不意味著中國不再繼續增長。即便是最悲觀的預計，也可能是預計增長5%，比美國或歐洲當前的增速高出了5倍。

那么，為什么中國股市今年毫無起色？

????中國股市表現不好的一個原因是大量的新股發售，也就是IPO。去年，新興市場IPO總額約為2,500億美元，其中很大一部分在中國。今年很可能會出現同樣的狀況。新股這樣涌入市場，往往會從抽走二級市場的資金，導致股票市場走勢欠佳。這種狀況不會永遠持續下去。隨著更多資金進入這些市場，會有轉機出現。

您為什么持有這么多大型能源股，比如俄羅斯的盧克石油（Lukoil）、俄羅斯天然氣公司（Gazprom）和中國石油（PetroChina）？

????我們在世界各地旅行的過程中注意到的一件事情，無論是在中國、非洲還是其他任何地方，都對能源有巨大的需求。這是受到運輸極大增長，以及冰箱、洗衣機、空調、電腦、手提電腦、iPhone等消費增加的推動所致。所有這些都需要電，而發電的最有效方式是通過煤炭或石油。所有有關大宗商品價格下跌的擔憂都過度了。從長期來看，趨勢相當明確：大宗商品價格將繼續上漲。

????Mark Mobius has picked up a variety of nicknames over the years -- the Pied Piper of Emerging Markets, the Globetrotter -- but all of them are inspired by the same fact: The 73-year-old has long been one of Wall Street's most adventurous investors. After more than four decades of investing in developing markets, he has rare insight into the world's fastest-growing regions. Today Mobius, who as chairman of the emerging-markets group at Franklin Templeton manages $45 billion in assets, is betting against the crowd. He believes that China's superpowered growth will continue and thatEurope will save itself from utter destruction. On China, he says, "People have gotten too pessimistic." And in Europe he's finding gems in smaller countries even as policymakers work to solve the big issues. (He's confident they will.) Mobius, who favors white suits and bright ties, spoke by phone with Fortune from his office in Singapore. Here are edited excerpts:

A lot of people are skeptical about China's GDP growth now. You say the growth rate is 7%. But is it real?

????I know a lot of people have questioned the statistics coming out of China, but if you look at independent statistics as related to China -- for example, exports from the West, from Japan, from Germany to China -- you will see that the growth rates are very healthy. Now, it's clear that there's a deceleration of growth taking place, but that deceleration doesn't mean that China's not growing. Even at the most pessimistic forecast, you're probably looking at 5% growth, which is five times higher than what the U.S. or Europe is doing.

So why haven't Chinese stocks gone anywhere this year?

????One of the reasons the stock market in China has not performed very well is because of the tremendous number of new issues, or IPOs. Last year they totaled about $250 billion in all emerging markets -- and a large portion of that was just in China. This year it will probably be about the same. When you have that kind of new paper coming in, it tends to draw money away from the secondary market, and the stock markets tend to underperform. It's not going to last forever. There will be an evening out as more money comes into these markets.

Why do you own so many big energy companies, such as Russia's Lukoil and Gazprom and China's PetroChina?

????One of the things that we notice as we travel around the world, whether it be in China or Africa or anywhere else, is an incredible appetite for energy driven by the tremendous increase in transportation but also by the increased consumption of refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, computers, laptops, iPhones -- you name it. All of this requires power, and that power is most efficiently produced by coal and by oil. All the fears about commodity prices declining have been overdone. Over the long term, the trends are very clear: Commodity prices will continue to rise.