微軟奇兵Xbox

????今年對微軟公司（Microsoft）來說是重拳出擊之年。公司計劃推出Windows 8，這是微軟操作系統的徹底升級版。今年晚些時候，微軟還會推出自己打造的平板電腦，與iPad一較高下。全新版的Office套件也即將全線出擊。從近期的情況來看，微軟公司可謂順風順水，形勢喜人。截至今年6月30日的微軟上一財年中，其商用部門（Business Division）的營業收入占總營收一半還多，為157億美元。同期，Windows和Windows Live這兩款產品帶來了115億美元的收入。去年全年，微軟的利潤達到了170億美元。從今年年初以來，長期以來萎靡不振的微軟股價也上漲了13%。

????但是，微軟仍然面臨重重問題。微軟在規模巨大的在線廣告業中所占的份額依然微不足道。而在對未來至關重要的云行業中，群雄逐鹿之勢正愈演愈烈。企業辦公應用套件（Apps for Business）是谷歌公司（Google）基于云而推出的應用程序，旨在提高辦公效率。目前有三分之一的企業都采用了它，而不是微軟的產品Office 365。最近，市場研究公司Global Equities Research的分析師特里普?喬杜里對《華爾街日報》（The Wall Street Journal ）表示：在極為關鍵的移動領域，微軟可謂無聲無息。他說：“只有不到2%的智能手機采用了Windows系統，搭載Windows的平板電腦幾乎沒有?？蛻艚邮芏群艿?，這可不是個小問題?！?/p>

????不過，微軟內部有一位尖兵正蓄勢待發，它就是Xbox 360。微軟的娛樂和設備部門（Entertainment and Devices Division）的收入約為商用部門的40%。鑒于Xbox 360是微軟如今業務版圖上很小的一塊，一般人可能會認為它不會有多重要。而實際上，Xbox 360已經悄無聲息地成為游戲終端業里統御天下的力量，地位如日中天。

????上個月微軟宣布，6月份它在美國市場售出了257,000臺Xbox 360，占據美國游戲機市場47%的份額。Xbox 360的銷售已連續18個月領先各大品牌，并連續16個月占據超過40%的市場份額。微軟稱，消費者6月份在Xbox 360上的花銷達到2.72億美元。對一臺大概7年前就已經推出的產品來說，這個成績單實在可圈可點。上個月，在一份致投資者的信中，摩根大通銀行（J.P. Morgan）的分析師約翰?迪福奇寫道：“盡管Xbox的財務表現對微軟而言仍顯得無足輕重，但它的業務持續表現出可觀的銷量，較高的軟件搭售率，以及強勁的收入增長。由于這一業務在投資者心目中的高調形象，相關新聞報道可能起到催化劑的作用?！?/p>

????不過Xbox 360對微軟的重要性絕不僅限于游戲終端的銷售而已。Xbox 360正走向產品生命周期的盡頭，在此期間，年同比銷量下降了35%。然而，在第四財季中，相關軟件和服務則推動娛樂部門的收入增長了12%。

????對微軟來說足夠幸運的是，它似乎能從這些軟件和服務的銷售中獲得持續增長。Xbox 360的游戲庫極為龐大，同時微軟還對Xbox Live加倍投入，將這款廣受歡迎的游戲終端變為人們客廳里的媒體中心，供用戶觀看流媒體視頻，下載視頻游戲。

????市場研究機構DFC Intelligence公司近期在一份研究中披露，到2017年，游戲終端游戲總收入的39%將來自通過網絡交付的各類發行平臺及其他基于網絡的來源。DFC相信，游戲業的總收入將有望從今年的670億美元增長到2017年的820億美元。換言之，屆時將有近320億美元的收入歸游戲終端依托于網絡提供的各項服務。

????這對微軟而言將是個絕好的機會。2010年曾有預測稱，Xbox Live的收入將達到10億美元左右。自此之后，微軟早已經售出了比這一預測多得多的游戲終端。而據市場研究公司Kantar Worldpanel稱，微軟游戲終端11%的用戶——約700萬人——通過Xbox Live購買產品。據微軟稱，去年Xbox Live的會員總數增長了15%。在未來幾年間，這一增長很可能將勢頭不減。

????而微軟就等著坐收現錢，大發利市了。

????微軟首席財務官彼得?克萊恩在4月舉行的業績發布電話會議（earnings call）上發表講話稱：“Xbox Live及所有與之相伴的娛樂內容”都被微軟總部視為“長期可持續的收入來源，無論是從訂閱用戶的角度看，還是從促進交易的角度看都是如此?！贝送?，他還補充說：“看看訂閱用戶的參與程度就會發現，相比較游戲時間，他們用于娛樂的時間一直在增長。因此我認為，Xbox Live所采用的戰略和價值主張在未來數年中依然會表現得很出色?！?/p>

????要想和Windows或Office的收入看齊，Xbox及其相關服務當然還任重道遠。但整個世界正向全數字化娛樂模式發展。顯然微軟對此心知肚明——而且正在悶聲發大財。

????譯者：清遠

????This is a big year for Microsoft. The company plans to launch Windows 8, a complete overhaul of its signature operating system, later this year as well as its own, home-grown tablet competitor to the iPad. A new version of Office is also in the works.

????Lately, things have been pretty good in Redmond. During Microsoft's (MSFT) last fiscal year, ended June 30, its Business Division accounted for over half of its operating income, generating $15.7 billion. Windows and Windows Live, meanwhile, came in at $11.5 billion. The company generated a $17 billion profit during its last fiscal year. Microsoft's long-languishing stock price is up 13% since the beginning of the year.

????Still, Microsoft has plenty of issues. It has a small presence in the massive online advertising industry, and the cloud, which is vastly important to its future, is up for grabs. One in three companies is adopting Google (GOOG) Apps for Business, the search giant's cloud-based office-productivity suite, rather than Microsoft's alternative, Office 365. And as Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry told The Wall Street Journal recently, Microsoft's presence in the crucial mobile space is practically non-existent. "Less than 2% of smartphones are Windows devices and no tablets are Windows devices yet, which is troubling from a customer adoption perspective," he said.

????There is a white knight inside Microsoft: the Xbox 360. Microsoft's Entertainment and Devices Division generates about 40% of the revenue of the Business Division. Considering the Xbox 360 is such a small part of Microsoft's operation today, you might think it can't possibly be so important. However, the Xbox 360 has quietly become a dominant force in the console business, making it awfully important.

????Microsoft announced last month that it sold 257,000 Xbox 360 units in the U.S. in June, earning it 47% share of the U.S. console market. The console led the way in total sales for the 18th month in a row, and held over 40% share for the 16th-consecutive month. Microsoft said that total consumer spending on the Xbox 360 in June hit $272 million. Not bad for a device that launched nearly seven years ago.

????"The company's Xbox business continues to show solid unit volume, attach rate, and revenue growth performance, though the financial impact to Microsoft remains inconsequential," J.P. Morgan analyst John DiFucci wrote in a note to investors last month. "However, the high-profile of this business in investors' minds may create catalysts from news events from this business line."

????But the Xbox 360's importance to Microsoft goes beyond console sales. The Xbox 360 is coming to the end of its life cycle, and year-over-year unit sales were down 35% during the period. Software and services, however, drove the entire entertainment division to a 12% revenue gain in the fourth quarter.

????Luckily for Microsoft, it appears poised to continue to derive its growth from those software and services. The console's game library is extremely deep and Microsoft has doubled down on Xbox Live, turning its popular console into a viable living room media hub for those looking to stream video and download video games.

????Market researcher DFC Intelligence revealed in a study recently that by 2017, 39% of all console game revenue will come byway of Internet-delivered distribution platforms and other Web-based sources. DFC believes that the gaming business will see revenue soar from $67 billion this year to $82 billion in 2017. In other words, nearly $32 billion will go to the console space's Web-based services that year.

????That's a major opportunity for Microsoft. Back in 2010, it was estimated that Xbox Live generated about $1 billion in revenue. Since then, Microsoft has sold boatloads more consoles and according to Kantar Worldpanel, 11% of the company's console owners, or about 7 million, have made purchases through Xbox Live. Xbox Live membership was up 15% in the last fiscal year, according to Microsoft. That growth is more than likely to continue in the coming years.

????And Microsoft is getting ready to cash in.

????Speaking during his company's earnings call in April, Microsoft CFO Peter Klein said that "Xbox Live and all the entertainment content that comes with that" is viewed by Redmond "as a persistent long-term revenue stream, both from a subscriber perspective as well as a transactional perspective. "If you look at the engagement that our subscribers have, the amount of time they spend doing entertainment as opposed to gaming is increasing all the time," Klein continued. "And so I think the strategy and the value proposition there plays out very well over the next several years."

????The Xbox and its associated services have a long way to go to match Windows or Office in overall revenue, but the world is moving towards an all-digital entertainment model. Turns out Microsoft knows it -- and it's quietly capitalizing.