快樂套餐為何不快樂

????你真的希望配炸薯條嗎？近期，NPD集團的一項調查顯示，消費者很可能會有氣無力地回答你：“可能吧！”。

????過去五年，作為快餐主打產品的套餐銷量比前一個五年減少了12%。截至2012年1月的5年內，套餐點餐總數從90億份減少的到80億份，減少了10億份?，F在，許多問題都可以用經濟低迷來解釋，而套餐購買量減少卻是少數幾個例外之一。雖然高失業率、尤其是18 – 34歲人群的高失業率確實對銷量低迷產生了一定影響，畢竟18 – 34歲人群是套餐消費的主力軍，但它并不是造成這種變化的主要推動因素。

????NPD餐廳分析師及報告作者邦尼?里格斯認為：“經濟壓力確實是套餐銷量減少的原因之一，但最關鍵的原因非常清楚——消費者希望套餐中能夠提供更多選擇?！?/p>

????里格斯表示，快餐店可以在套餐中加入沙拉和不同類型的飲料來安撫食客。比如，溫蒂漢堡（Wendy's）已經開始嘗試新套餐菜單，在價格不變的情況下，可以用附餐沙拉和低脂酸奶等更健康的選擇來代替炸薯條。而漢堡王（Burger King）則根據消費者點的配餐修改了套餐價格。麥當勞只提供開心樂園餐的替代配餐，很少提供可選飲料，而且各連鎖店的規定也各不相同。

????溫蒂漢堡發言人丹尼?林奇稱，實際上，溫蒂漢堡20%至25%的套餐顧客會選擇自選套餐。他說，雖然菜單的改變并不是推動銷售額增加的唯一因素，但消費者對調整菜單的反饋卻非常積極。

????雷蒙德?詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）分析師布萊恩?埃利奧特認為，溫蒂漢堡獨具特色的套餐菜單源自這家連鎖店早期留下的寶貴“遺產”——更精致、更健康的配餐。

????當前，快餐行業利潤空間不斷收縮，而食品采購與制作的成本卻在攀升，在這樣的大形勢下，預計溫蒂漢堡的競爭對手也將采取類似的策略。

????WD Partners餐飲顧問公司咨詢師丹尼斯?隆巴迪對NPD的說法并不認同。他認為，經濟狀況在套餐銷量下降中發揮的影響比NPD所說的要大。隆巴迪認為套餐銷量減少是2008年經濟危機爆發以來產生的“杠鈴效應”的一部分。這種觀點認為，在經濟低迷時期，一個行業中只有最昂貴和最實惠的產品才能存活。拿快餐行業來說，麥當勞的一美元菜單和布法羅雞翅燒烤吧（Buffalo Wild Wings）等休閑餐廳的表現都非常出色，但介于兩者之間的產品，比如套餐，銷量卻出現了縮水。

????對于已經陷入困境的快餐行業來說，套餐銷量受挫更是讓其雪上加霜。最近，麥當勞的季度收入低于分析師預期，而過去一年，百勝餐飲集團（Yum Brand）旗下的美國肯德基特許經營店數量也在減少。NPD集團近期調低了對快餐行業的增長預期，并預測2012年快餐行業增長幅度將低于1%，而在2013年還將大幅下降。

????套餐是餐飲行業的主打產品，在快餐漢堡店的午餐和晚餐中，47%的顧客會選擇套餐。而且，套餐也是賽百味（Subway）和Arby’s等三明治連鎖店的重要收入來源，給它們帶來了16%的顧客。

????但套餐并不是唯一一種陷入困境的快餐業務。NPD的數據顯示，2011年，兒童餐的銷量也減少了6%。

????但套餐對餐廳具有重要的價值，不可能因為銷量減少便將它扔到垃圾桶里。里格斯認為：“套餐產品不會消失，因為它們非常重要。但問題在于，如何才能阻止套餐銷量的下滑，讓套餐重新恢復增長勢頭？”

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????Do you really want fries with that? A recent NPD Group study suggests that your answer is likely a weak maybe.

????In the past five years, combo meal sales, a staple of the fast food menu, have decreased by 12% compared to the previous five-year period. Total combo meal orders declined by a billion over a five-year period ending in January 2012, from nine to eight billion orders.

????The dip in orders is that rare piece of bad business news that companies may not be able to explain away by citing the struggling economy. While factors like higher unemployment certainly have played a role in the depressed sales -- particularly among 18-34 year olds, a group that makes up the majority of combo meal patrons -- it wasn't the primary driver behind this shift.

????"While economic pressures are apart of [the decrease in combo meal sales], it came out loud and clear that the customer wants more options in the combo meal," says, Bonnie Riggs, NPD restaurant analyst and author of the report.

????Fast food restaurants could appease customers by offering salads and different types of drinks with their combo meals, Riggs says. Some chains like Wendy's (WEN) are already experimenting with their combo meal menu, offering healthier options like a side salad and low fat yogurt in lieu of French fries for no difference in price. Burger King (BKW) changes its prices based on what sides you order. And McDonald's (MCD) only offers swappable sides for their Happy Meals, and drink swaps are fairly rare and vary from franchise to franchise.

????Indeed, 20 to 25% of Wendy's combo meal customers opt for the customizable meals, according to company spokesperson Denny Lynch. Customer feedback has been positive, he says, although it's not the only factor driving sales.

????Wendy's unique combo menu stems from the fact that their smaller, healthier sides are "legacy items" from the chain's early days, says Raymond James analyst Bryan Elliot.

????Expect Wendy's rivals to implement similar strategies, within the bounds of tightening profit margins in the industry amid the rising cost of food sourcing and production.

????WD Partners food industry consultant Dennis Lombardi thinks that the sag in combo meal sales has more to do with the economy than what the NPD reports suggests. Lombardi sees the drop as a part of a "barbell effect" that has taken hold since the 2008 recession. The idea is that in tough economic times, the most and least expensive products in an industry thrive. In the case of the fast food industry, the McDonalds' Dollar Menu and fast casual restaurants like Buffalo Wild Wings have done well, while sales of offerings in between -- like combo meals -- have been squeezed, he says.

????Tough times for combo meals comes as especially unwelcome news for an already struggling fast food industry. McDonalds' quarterly earnings recently undershot analyst's expectations, and Yum Brand's American KFC franchises have been contracting in the past year. The NPD group recently decreased its growth expectations for the fast food industry, predicting less than 1% growth in 2012 and contraction in 2013.

????Combo meals are a staple in the restaurant industry, accounting for 47% of lunch and dinner visits to fast food hamburger joints. And they also represent an important source of revenue for sandwich shops like Subway and Arby's, driving 16% of visits to these restaurants.

????Combos aren't the only fast food deal that has fallen on hard times. According to NPD data, kid's meal sales saw a 6% drop in 2011.

????Combo meals, however, are too valuable to restaurants for the dip in sales to send them into the fast food dustbin. "[Combo meals] aren't going to go away; they're so important," Riggs says, "The question is, how do we stop them from declining and get them growing again?"