奧朗德上臺之后，法國何去何從

????為描述德國總理安吉拉?默克爾（Angela Merkel）和法國總統尼古拉斯?薩科齊（Nicolas Sarkozy）在經濟危機期間為團結歐洲所做的努力，媒體曾經象征性地將二者聯姻，戲稱這一對為“默科齊”（Merkozy）?，F在媒體同樣是揉和人名，創造了一個新詞，用來悲觀地描述了默克爾和法國新任社會黨總統弗朗索瓦?奧朗德之間的關系。這個詞就是“默徳”（Merde）。

????奧朗德將于5月16日正式上任。他將是二戰以來第二位掌握法國大權的社會黨人士。他的想法既大膽又具有破壞性——例如通過向富人征稅來盤活法國財政，以及通過雇用更多的政府雇員來降低失業率。為此備感擔憂的人群不僅包括48%支持薩科齊的選民，還包括那些同時反對這兩位候選人，因而拒絕投票的民眾。相比較而言，市場似乎對奧朗德準備在另一領域實施的計劃更為不安——即他承諾領導一個“新歐洲”。奧朗德在他的競選活動中聲稱，“歐洲并不是由德國說了算”。他競選主題的一個主要元素就是打著歐洲多個難兄難弟的旗號譴責德國的緊縮政策。他甚至還斷言自己在當選法國總統后的出訪第一站就要去柏林，“重新談判”傾注了“默科齊”大量時間的財政契約。

????為了避免這樣尷尬的會面，默克爾曾幫助薩科齊競選，而且在接下來的幾個月中，她也會忙得焦頭爛額。奧朗德深知自己還有很長一段路要走。但是在這個過程中，他將認識到，無論他如何虛張聲勢，德國仍是大權在握。德國的經濟遠比法國健康，而且默克爾的支持率也很高。雖然目前有人質疑她的緊縮計劃，但她迅速地將這一辭令改為“增長契約”。緊縮計劃中的一些靈活性說不定該還真的有利于歐洲經濟的健康——因為在西班牙這樣一些國家，經濟危機的幕后推手主要是房地產價格而不是國債，而且這些國家迫切需要調整經濟增長點。與此同時，這項歐洲緊縮試驗若想獲得成功，實施某種形式的預算管制似乎是唯一可行的出路。從政治角度來看，默克爾采取這樣的立場毫不吃力，而奧朗德則比較困難。

????隨著奧朗德開始其在法國國家政府的歷練，他的雙鬢可能會變得比巴拉克?奧巴馬更花白。首先，雖然他承諾法國將于2013年達到歐盟財政緊縮政策3%的赤字目標，并在2017年底達到預算收支平衡，但他并沒有說明如何實現這一目標。同時，法國國債，即法國政府為了支付開支所借的貸款，預計將于2013年底達到國內生產總值的90%。而奧朗德曾表示2013年將是法國經濟回歸強勢增長的年份。然而，尤其鑒于英國和西班牙經濟的二次探底，大多數經濟預測并不像奧朗德描繪的那么美好。

????由于法國與德國一道受困于歐元區，因此，如果奧朗德希望獲得歐洲的主導權同時保留法國社會模式的精華部分，他的主要目標應該是提高法國的競爭力。然而在這一點上，他仍沒有拿出具體的方案。雖然法、德兩國工人的生產力水平不相上下，但是法國的出口市場一直在歐洲墊底。此外，法國慷慨的社會福利也造成了勞動力市場的失調。工會和國家法律的過度保護使得企業難以解雇不合格的工人——這也意味著，被開除的工人也能拿到由企業或國家發放的豐厚補助，某些情況下還能拿雙份。奧朗德還希望將退休年齡調回60歲。退休年齡從60歲推遲到62歲是薩科奇結構性改革中唯一有意義的嘗試，因此奧朗德的這一想法似乎遙不可及。

????"Merkozy" is what the press dubbed the symbolic marriage of fortune between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, describing their efforts to hold Europe together through economic crisis. Now a new portmanteau has been coined, mashing the names -- and pessimistically describing the relationship -- between Merkel and France's new socialist president, Francois Hollande, as "Merde."

????On May 16th, when Hollande is inaugurated, he will be only the second socialist to run the country since World War II. His promises are bold and disruptive -- including restoring France's budget by taxing the rich and reducing unemployment by hiring more government workers. This deeply worries the 48% of the French voters who cast a ballot for Sarkozy, or those who protested both candidates by refusing to vote at all. Markets, by contrast, seemed more troubled by Hollande's plans on another front -- his promises to lead a "New Europe." "Germany doesn't decide for all of Europe," Hollande proclaimed on the campaign trail. A major element of his campaign narrative has been to fight against German austerity on behalf of Europe's beleaguered economies. He has even asserted that his first French presidential trip will be to Berlin, to "renegotiate" the fiscal compact that took "Merkozy" so long to pass.

????Merkel, who offered to help Sarkozy campaign to avoid this uncomfortable meeting, will have her hands full over the next few months. Hollande knows he has a lot to prove. But what he's about to learn is that no matter his posturing, Germany still holds much of the power. Germany's economy remains significantly healthier than France's, and Merkel's approval ratings are high. Though her austerity programs are now in question, she's been quick to shift her own rhetoric to a "growth compact." Some flexibility with respect to austerity may actually be healthy for Europe -- certain countries, like Spain, have economic woes driven more by housing prices than national debt, and could desperately used a shift in focus toward growth. At the same time, however, some form of budget discipline appears to be the only sane path forward if the European experiment is to succeed. Politically, that's an easy stand to take for Merkel. It will be harder for Hollande.

????Hollande's hair may yet go whiter than Barack Obama's as he begins to collect experience in France's national government. First, though he promised that France will hit the 3% deficit target in the EU's fiscal compact in 2013 and will achieve a balanced budget by 2017, he hasn't explained how he will do this. Meanwhile, France's public debt, the amount of money borrowed by the French government to pay its bills, is projected to reach 90% of GDP by 2013. This is the year that Hollande says France will return to strong growth. But particularly with the U.K. and Spain in a double-dip recession, most economic forecasts aren't as rosy as Hollande's.

????Locked into the euro alongside Germany, Hollande's main goal, if he wants to lead Europe and preserve the best parts of France's social model, should be to increase French competitiveness. Again, he has yet to lay out a specific plan. Although worker productivity is similar in Germany and France, the French export market is among the weakest in Europe. Further, France's generous welfare state has led to a dysfunctional labor market, where excessive protection by labor unions and state laws make it hard for incompetent workers to be fired -- and mean that even those who are fired wind up getting paid off handsomely by either their company, the state, or in some cases both. Hollande's idea to rollback the retirement age to 60, after Sarkozy pushed it to 62 in one of his only meaningful attempts at structural reform, seems wildly out of touch.