摩根大通一季報盈利超預期

????杰米?戴蒙再次大顯神通。問題是這位首席執行官的魔力還能在摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）持續多久。

????摩根大通今年前三個月實現凈利潤54億美元，部分得益于利率下降為按揭部門創造的數億美元超額利潤。每股收益1.31美元，高于分析師此前預測的1.15美元。

????4月13日早間，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）也宣布，同樣也是因為得益于按揭銷售增加，今年一季度凈利潤同比小幅上升至42億美元。另外，當季新增壞賬減少了9%。同摩根大通一樣，富國銀行的業績也好于預期。摩根大通和富國銀行是最先發布季報的兩家大銀行，由此看來，至少銀行業目前的狀況正在改善。

????不過，摩根大通的凈利潤較上年同期的56億美元下降了3%。而且，有跡象顯示，這家美國最大的銀行未來可能還會有麻煩。摩根大通增加了22億美元的撥備，用于支付未來的訴訟費用。該公司表示，增加的這部分成本主要涉及按揭業務。

????一位分析師在摩根大通的電話會議上稱，該公司對止贖預期過于樂觀。法國農業信貸銀行（Credit Agricole）分析師邁克?梅奧質疑在利率這么低的情況下，摩根大通開設分支機構能否繼續賺錢。摩根大通高管稱，公司按揭業務超額利潤可能是暫時的。戴蒙稱，他預計摩根大通住房貸款業務“成本和支出保持高位”的狀況還將“持續一段時間”。4月13日午盤，摩根大通股價下跌近了3%，降到了43.58美元。

????不管如何，摩根大通還是發布了很多好消息。一季度實現營收274億美元，較2011年四季度環比激增24%，較上年同期增長了6%。期間，零售和銀行業務銷售躍升了40%，從而帶來了這些積極的變化。摩根大通稱，利率下降吸引消費者對住房貸款進行再融資，美國政府的“房貸可負擔再融資計劃”（Home Affordable Refinance Program）也使該公司獲益。信用卡業務銷售增長，沖銷貸款減少。另外，摩根大通還將信用卡損失撥備減少了9,600萬美元，增加了信用卡部門的利潤。消費者和企業存款均增長了8%。

????雖然交易利潤較四季度環比顯著增長，但這個部門的業績增長部分被投行業務盈利和收入同比雙降所抵消。很多觀察人士說過，今年華爾街盈利有望改善。摩根大通稱，按費用計，摩根大通已經是美國第一大投行。

????摩根大通首席執行官戴蒙稱，他對業績感到滿意，該公司持續加強其“穩固的資產負債表”。他還說，他相信住房市場已經觸底，摩根大通預計今年止贖量將下降也反映了這一點。在季報電話會議上，摩根大通首席財務官道格拉斯?布朗斯坦被問道有關公司首席投資辦公室正在進行大筆高風險投資的報告。布朗斯坦表示，這些交易是出于對沖考慮，而且他相信根據沃克爾規則（Volcker Rule）, 這些交易是可以進行的。沃克爾規則是多德弗蘭克金融改革法案的一部分，但尚未開始實施。戴蒙稱：“我們整個批發業務的信貸趨勢穩定，而且還在持續加強?！?/p>

????譯者：早稻米

????Jamie Dimon pulled another rabbit out of his hat. The question is how much longer the CEO can continue to make magic at JPMorgan Chase.

????JPMorgan (JPM) earned $5.4 billion in the first three months of the year, driven in part by lower interest rates that produced hundreds of millions of dollars of excess profits in its mortgage division. On a per share basis, JPMorgan's bottom line came in at $1.31 in earnings. Analysts had been predicting the company would earn $1.15 per share.

????Also on Friday morning, Wells Fargo (WFC) said its earnings in the first quarter of the year rose slightly from a year ago to $4.2 billion, also boosted by an uptick in its mortgage sales. The company also said 9% fewer loans went bad in the quarter. Like with JPMorgan, Well's results were better than expected. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are the first two of the large banks to report earnings to investors, signalling that at least for now, things seem to be improving in the banking sector.

????Still, JPMorgan's bottom line fell 3% from the $5.6 billion the company produced in profits in the same period a year ago. And there were some signs that problems might be ahead for the nation's biggest bank. JPMorgan added $2.2 billion to the money it puts aside to pay for future litigation expenses. The company said much of the addition costs were related to its mortgage operations.

????On the company's conference call, one analyst said the company's foreclosure expectations were too optimistic. Mike Mayo, an analyst at Credit Agricole Securities, questioned whether the company could continue to make money opening branches with interest rates so low. JPMorgan executives said the company's excess mortgage profits were likely temporary. Dimon said he expects JPMorgan to have "elevated levels of costs and expenses" in its home loan division for "a while longer." What's more, at mid-day, JPMorgan's shares had fallen nearly 3% to $43.58.

????Nonetheless, there was a lot of good news at JPMorgan. Revenue in the first quarter was $27.4 billion, which was 24% higher than in the last three months of 2011, and 6% more than what it had in sales a year ago. The positive results were driven by its retail and banking division, where sales jumped 40%. JPMorgan said lower rates encouraged customers to refinancing their home loans, and that it benefited as well from the government's Home Affordable Refinance Program. In credit cards, sales were up and the company wrote off fewer loans. The company also lowered its provision for card losses by $96 million, which also added to the division's bottom line. Deposits for both consumers and businesses were up 8%.

????The gains in that division were partly offset by a drop in earnings and revenue in the company's investment banking division from a year ago, though trading profits were up significantly from the fourth quarter. A number of observers have said that profits appear to improving on Wall Street this year. The company said it ranked as the number one investment bank in the country by fees.

????CEO Dimon said he was pleased with the results and that the company has continued to strengthen its "fortress balance sheet." He said he believe housing bottomed, and that his firm's expectation that foreclosures would drop over the course of the year reflected that. On the conference call, JPMorgan's CFO Douglas Braunstein was asked about reports that the bank is making large risky bets in its chief investment office. Braunstein said that the trading was hedging purposes and he believed it would be allowed under the Volcker Rule, which was passed as part of the Dodd-Frank financial regulator reform, but has not been implemented. Said Dimon, "Credit trends across our wholesale portfolios were stable and continued to be strong."