派息有利增加GDP

????過去幾年，溫吞吞的經濟復蘇勢頭已使得美國一些最大的公司囤積了越來越多的現金。這對數以百萬計的失業者和股東來說都是一個棘手的問題。失業者們質疑為何美國企業界不把龐大的現金儲備用來招募更多員工，而股東們則要求提高投資的回報率。

????但2012年的情況可能會有所不同。美國企業界已慢慢地意識到這一點，股東們今年有可能會迎來更高的派息。咨詢機構凱投宏觀（Capital Economics）的一份最新報告指出，即便美國企業界只派發10%的現金儲備，也有望將年度可支配收入增加近2%。隨著股東們口袋里的錢增多，即便他們存下大部分錢，這樣的派息仍能使年度消費額增加1%。

????如果這些估算值的相信，它們對美國企業界顯然是個提醒：真的該行動起來了。

????上個月，蘋果公司（Apple）宣布將進行17年來的首次派息，促使一些人猜測其他科技公司是否會改變對現金儲備的的看法。雖然思科（Cisco）、甲骨文（Oracle）和微軟（Microsoft）都在派息，但它們仍是美國現金持有最多的公司。

????根據凱投宏觀的數據，蘋果公司因iPhone和iPad銷售火爆而攢下了約970億美元的現金，在美國公司現金儲備排行榜上位居榜首。微軟位居次席，約為520億美元，思科第三，約470億美元。谷歌（Google）位居第四，約450億美元。隨著蘋果公司給股東派息，谷歌將成為唯一一家市值超1,000億美元但不派息的科技公司。

????自從最近一輪經濟衰退以來，對經濟前景不確定的高管們攥緊了手頭的現金。截至2011年底，現金水平從2009年年中經濟衰退結束時的420億美元增至了6,720億美元。如果再算上短期投資，同期流動資產總額幾乎翻了一番，達到了2.2萬億美元。

????確實，有太多現金可供分配。美國企業界顯然不打算把所有現金都發掉。如果他們將2.2萬億美元全部派給股東，個人收入將增加近20%。

????沒錯，提高派息不一定適用于所有公司，但很難說會對高管造成什么損失。即便是以蘋果公司的派息和回購計劃來看，它對蘋果的現金儲備而言也只是九牛一毛。該計劃預計未來三年每年將耗費蘋果公司超過100億美元，但蘋果的現金進賬一直很客觀，僅去年年底假日期間的銷售季，蘋果公司每周的進賬就有約10億美元。

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????For the past few years, a tepid economic recovery has caused America's biggest companies to hoard a growing stack of cash. It's a thorny issue. Not just to the millions of jobless who wonder why corporate America can't just use its plentiful cash reserves to hire more workers, but also to shareholders asking for higher returns on their investments.

????But 2012 could turn out differently. Companies have slowly come around, with shareholders likely to see higher payouts this year. Even if firms only paid out a modest 10% of their liquid assets, it could raise annual disposable income by nearly 2%, according to a new report by Capital Economics. With more money in shareholders' pockets, even if they naturally save a bulk of it, such a payout could still raise annual consumption by 1%.

????If you believe the estimates, then it's certainly a reminder that companies should really step up.

????Last month, Apple (AAPL) announced it would pay its first dividend in 17 years, leading some to speculate if others in the tech world might think differently about their cash reserves. Though Cisco (CSCO), Oracle (ORCL) and Microsoft (MSFT) pay dividends, the companies are still among the nation's biggest cash hoarders.

????Apple, with about $97 billion in cash amassed from huge demands for iPhones and iPads, ranks at the top of the list of U.S. corporations with lofty reserves, according to Capital Economics. Microsoft follows with approximately $52 billion and Cisco with about $47 billion. Google (GOOG) ranks fourth, with $45 billion. And now that Apple is giving its shareholders a payout, that makes Google the only tech company with a market value exceeding $100 billion that doesn't offer a dividend.

????Since the latest recession, executives uncertain about the economy have held onto their money. Cash levels at the end of 2011 rose to $672 billion from $42 billion at the end of the recession in mid-2009. If you include short-term investments, liquid assets nearly doubled to $2.2 trillion during the same period.

????Indeed, that's a lot of cash to go around. Companies obviously aren't going to pay out all their cash reserves. If they did return that $2.2 trillion to shareholders, personal incomes would rise by nearly 20%.

????It's true raising dividends might not work for every company, but it's hard to argue that it would exactly hurt executives. Even with Apple's plans to dole out dividends and provide stock buybacks, the move isn't expected to put a dent in Apple's coffers. The plan is expected to cost the company more than $10 billion a year over the next three years, while the company attracts a sizable sum of cash – about $1 billion a week in the last holiday season alone.????