摩根大通為何淪為華爾街“差生”

????此外，增長也是個問題。而且，這不是因為不努力。過去一年，摩根大通新增了216個分支機構，4,000名零售銀行家和銷售專員，并擴大了企業貸款和投資銀行業務。但摩根大通的營收仍在下降，而不是上升——僅第四季度就下降了18%。而且，摩根大通依然保持著華爾街大行中規模最大的衍生品業務。監管的收緊以及銀行信用評級下調可能會使這塊業務的盈利能力下降。梅奧說，摩根大通的衍生品營收可能減少10億美元。

????但摩根大通最大的問題可能是戴蒙對該行過于自信。去年，戴蒙稱，國際資本金條例提案將迫使他的銀行比一些競爭對手持有更多資本金，是一份“反美國的”提案。事實上，迄今為止，戴蒙并沒像其他銀行那樣緊急增加資本金。而且，戴蒙說他也不會像其他銀行一樣，將資本金提高到高于新規要求的水平。目前，摩根大通的有形資本金比率低于花旗集團和美國銀行。戴蒙看來對此毫不在意。摩根大通早就證明了它一向善于管理和保護資本金方面。是的，但那是三年前。如今，在大多數投資者看來，摩根大通與其他大銀行沒什么兩樣，甚至都不是其中最受青睞的一家。

????Growth has been an issue as well. And it's not for not trying. In the past year, JPMorgan has added 216 new branches and 4,000 retail bankers and sales specialists. It has also expanded its corporate lending and investment bank. Nonetheless, JPMorgan's revenue has been dropping, not rising -- down 18% in the fourth quarter alone. And JPMorgan still maintains the largest derivatives books among the big banks. Tighter regulations and lower debt ratings for the banks will probably make that business less profitable. Mayo says JPMorgan's derivatives revenue could drop by $1 billion.

????But JPMorgan's biggest problem might be Dimon's own inflated image of his bank. Last year, Dimon called proposed international capital rules that would force his bank to hold more capital than some of his rivals as "anti-American." In fact, Dimon hasn't rushed to raise capital like other banks. And Dimon says he won't raise excess capital above new rules, as other banks have. JPMorgan now maintains a lower tangible capital ratio than Citigroup or Bank of America. And that appears to be fine with Dimon. His bank proved it was better at managing and protecting its capital. Yes, but that was three years ago. These days, JPMorgan looks like just another large bank to most investors, and not even the most loved one.