摩根大通為何淪為華爾街“差生”

????杰米?戴蒙可能需要做些什么來證明自己依然是位出色的銀行家。金融危機之后，投資者爭相購入摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的股票，看中的就是戴蒙的杰出表現，他成功地帶領摩根大通避開了美國樓市泡沫破裂造成的最嚴重沖擊。但過去幾個月，摩根大通和它的這位首席執行官似乎都失去了光彩。

????今年以來，美國各大銀行的股價均呈現回升，但摩根大通的反彈幅度低于大多數銀行。1月1日迄今，摩根大通股票僅上漲了15%。相比之下，花旗集團（Citigroup）漲了23%，高盛（Goldman）漲28%，美國銀行（Bank of America）更是飆升42%。更糟的是，摩根大通股票的估值也低于很多競爭對手——雖然業界一度認為它們的狀況比摩根大通糟糕得多。實際上，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的一位分析師稱，假如這幾年摩根大通經歷了分崩離析的過程，任其自生自滅，假如這個過程中戴蒙被掃地出門，可能摩根大通如今的股價反而會漲到48美元，比當前38.72美元的股價還要高24%。天哪。

????周二在摩根大通的年度股東大會上，戴蒙還有機會贏得股東的支持。但如今要證明摩根大通的股票估值應高于競爭對手，可比過去難多了。

????部分原因在于戴蒙。戴蒙是成功預測次貸損失并采取行動避免了相關損失的少數銀行首席執行官之一。但最近一年左右，越來越明確的一點是，戴蒙干得并沒有之前想象的那么漂亮。近期多家美國大銀行就“自動簽名”（robo-signing，貸款服務商在未審查相關文件的情況下便簽字——譯注）同49個州的總檢察長達成和解，賠償250億美元，摩根大通需承擔53億美元。雖然沒像美國銀行（近120億美元）那么多，但還是達到了花旗集團（22億美元）的兩倍還多。另外，摩根大通未來還將出現更多的按揭貸款損失。摩根大通止贖的按揭貸款比例略高于14%，這些貸款不是已停止還款，就是還款已逾期90天 。據上述摩根士丹利的分析師稱，這一比例高于其他大銀行，后者的不良住房貸款比例平均為12%。

????而且，在很多人認為很可能觸發下一次金融危機的歐洲，摩根大通似乎沒有像次級危機前那樣積極抽身。根據里昂證券(CLSA)銀行業分析師、近期撰寫了《流亡華爾街》（Exile on Wall Street）一書的邁克?梅奧統計，摩根大通在債務違約風險看來最高的希臘、愛爾蘭、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙的凈敞口高達160億美元。

????Jamie Dimon may need to do something to prove he still deserves a premium. In the wake of the financial crisis, investors paid up for JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) shares because Dimon had done a remarkably good job of steering his bank clear of the worst of the housing bust. But in the past few months, JPMorgan and its CEO seem to have lost their luster.

????While shares of all of the big banks have rallied this year, JPMorgan's are up less than most. The stock of Dimon's bank has risen 15% since Jan. 1. That compares to 23% for Citigroup (C), 28% for Goldman (GS) and 42% for Bank of America (BAC). Worse, JPMorgan's shares now get a lower valuation than many rivals - even those that were once seen as much weaker. In fact, were JPMorgan broken up and left for dead, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, presumably booting Dimon in the process, the bank's shares could potentially rise to $48, up 24% from its current price of $38.72. Ouch.

????Dimon will get another shot to win over investors on Tuesday, when JPMorgan holds its annual meeting with shareholders. But arguing JPMorgan should be more highly valued than its rivals is harder than it used to be.

????Part of the reason has to do with Dimon, who was famously one of the few bank CEOs to foresee losses in subprime mortgages and made moves to avoid them. But in the past year or so, it has become clear that Dimon wasn't as successful as was thought. JPMorgan's portion of the recent $25 billion 'robo-signing' settlement with 49 state attorneys general was $5.3 billion. Not as much as Bank of America, which has to pay out to states and borrowers nearly $12 billion, but more than double Citigroup's penalty, which was $2.2 billion. What's more, JPMorgan has more mortgage losses coming. Just over 14% of JPMorgan's mortgages have either been foreclosed upon, are no-longer paying or are 90 days past due. That's higher than at other big banks, where distressed home loans average 12%, according to the Morgan Stanley analysts.

????And unlike subprime mortgages, JPMorgan doesn't seem as aggressive in trying to sidestep what many people see as the likeliest cause of the next financial crisis: Europe. According to Mike Mayo, banking analyst at CLSA and author of the recent book Exile on Wall Street, JPMorgan has $16 billion in net exposure to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain - the countries seen as the most likely to default.