美加石油合作流產，加拿大人轉向中國

????這是個上下顛倒、混亂不堪的世界。首先，雖然美國十年來一直在努力降低對所謂“不友好”國家出產石油的依賴，但日前美國政府還是取消了與加拿大的Keystone XL輸油管道項目。該項目原本計劃修建1,661英里的36英寸管道，將產自加拿大阿爾伯塔省的石油途經加拿大薩斯喀徹溫省、美國的蒙大拿州、南達科他州、內布拉斯加州、堪薩斯州和俄克拉何馬州，最終運到德克薩斯州阿瑟港進行精煉。無論如何，加拿大人也算不上不友好。然而，這個稱作Keystone XL的項目已經變成了一個燙手的山芋。美國總統奧巴馬由于擔心惹惱左翼環保人士，已經放棄了這個項目。

????然而，這個項目原本預計能產生70億美元的經濟效益，并在建設過程中創造20,000個高薪制造業崗位。僅在德克薩斯州，該項目預計就將帶來50,365人年的勞力需求和4,110萬美元的州政府稅收。即便是管道另一端的加拿大蒙大拿州也將享有5,531人年的勞力需求和750萬美元的稅收收入。（然而，這個項目最終還是擱淺，）看來人們根本不愁找不到工作，對吧？

????我們還是接著說說這個顛倒的世界吧。曾幾何時，美國是北美洲的經濟引擎。它幅員更遼闊，實力更雄厚，加拿大過去一直在搭這個鄰國的順風車。然而，今非昔比。如今，美國經濟一團糟，而擬建管道的起點——阿爾伯塔省卻是一片欣欣向榮，迥異于周邊的慘淡景象。預計阿爾伯塔省2012年經濟增長率將達到3.8%。如今，如果不提前至少兩周預定，在阿爾伯塔省的卡爾加里可能連一間酒店客房也找不到。而在紐約，可能當晚去，當晚就能入住。

????難道這是第三次大逆轉嗎？加拿大人多年來一直努力推動該項目，但這次遭美國回絕后，他們并沒有坐著干等，等待今秋大選后美國政治僵局自行解扣。加拿大總理哈珀突訪中國，熱情擁抱這個當今世界的另外一個強國，探討如何將加拿大石油運往遠東的問題。

????財富網（Fortune.com） 本周早些時候采訪了阿爾伯塔省財政廳廳長羅恩?利貝爾特，從加拿大的角度一窺這個上下倒置的世界。

加拿大人對于Keystone計劃流產有何感受？

????我們首先來看石油需求。美國每天進口石油約1,000萬桶，目前有17%來自加拿大。我們有能力為美國供應更多石油，美國也可以無需再依賴那些可能不如加拿大友好的國家和地區。但首先必須允許我們把石油運過來才行。我們知道Keystone項目已在美國陷入了政治僵局。我們對此無能為力。但我們相信美國大選后很有可能會發生點什么。就算不是Keystone，也會是其他什么。

????The world has turned upside down. First, despite a decade-long exercise in hand-wringing about reducing American dependence on the oil of, shall we say, "unfriendly" governments, the U.S. just put the kibosh on a deal with Canada -- a deal that would have built a 1,661 mile, 36-inch pipeline to send oil from Alberta through Saskatchewan, Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma to be refined in Port Arthur, Texas. Whatever you think about Canadians, they are not an unfriendly people. Called Keystone XL, the project was turned into a political football, and President Obama walked away from it for fear of enraging the environmental left.

????This despite the fact that the project was projected to provide a $7 billion economic stimulus and create 20,000 high-wage manufacturing jobs during its construction. In Texas, the project was projected to provide 50,365 person-years of employment and $41.1 million in state tax revenues. Even Montana, at the other end of the spectrum, might have enjoyed 5,531 person-years of employment and $7.5 million in tax revenues. It's not like people are looking for jobs these days, though, is it?

????But let's get back to the world turning upside down. It used to be that the U.S. was the economic engine of this continent. Canada rode sidecar to its much larger and more powerful neighbor. And that's the way it went. Well, the U.S. economy is in the crapper, and Alberta—home to the proposed pipeline—is a landlocked island of prosperity amidst otherwise disastrous western economies. Economic growth is projected to be 3.8% in Alberta in 2012. You can't get a hotel room in Calgary these days if you don't book at least two weeks in advance. You can probably get one for this evening in New York City.

????A third reversal? When the U.S. blew off the Canadians after years of work to get this pipeline going, the Canadians didn't just sit idly by and wait for U.S. political gridlock to resolve itself after this fall's election. Instead, Canadian Prime Minister Harper was suddenly in China, glad-handing that other world power and talking about just what it would take to get Canadian oil to the Far East.

????Fortune.com caught up with Alberta Finance Minster Ron Liepert earlier this week to get a sense of what this upside-down world looks like from the Canadian perspective.

How do Canadians feel about the collapse of the Keystone initiative?

????Let's start with the demand side. The U.S. imports somewhere in the range of 10 million barrels of oil a day. Seventeen percent of that is coming from Canada at the moment. But we have the ability to supply a lot more of the U.S. imports and not have you be reliant on…you name the place, but it's probably not as friendly as Canada. But you have to allow us to get it to you. We recognize that Keystone has been caught up in political gridlock in this country. It's out of our hands. But we also believe that there's a good chance something might happen after the election. And if it's not Keystone, it's going to be something else.