信貸失衡危及中國經濟未來

????外界紛紛意識到，中國經濟內部出現了一些嚴重的問題。穆迪（Moody's）在近期公布的一份報告中稱，中國銀行系統全部78，300億美元貸款中，壞賬率將從1.1%上升到12%。日益嚴重的壞賬問題掩蓋了一個與此相關且同樣需要引起重視的現象：在過去三年中，中國激增的巨額貸款幾乎全部流入了國有企業。全球經濟危機爆發之后，中國國有銀行瘋狂地向國有企業發放貸款，希望能夠緩和經濟危機的影響（尤其是對就業的影響）。據中國銀行（Bank of China）一位前高管回憶，去年，他遇到中國中部的一位分行行長，向他詢問分行為當地國有企業提供了多少貸款。那位行長的回答是：“要多少給多少?！?/p>

????但相比之下，私營部門卻一直深受資金匱乏的困擾。（值得注意的是，目前沒有可靠數據分析國營部門與私營部門的貸款情況，但肯定是不對稱的，這一點可以確定。）即便私營企業能夠得到貸款，他們也得付出更高的成本。經紀公司里昂證券亞太區市場（CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets）對中國A股市場的一份研究顯示，與國有企業相比，大型私企的總體資本成本（負債與股權融資）平均高出100個基準點。大量事實證明，小型私營企業與國有企業之間的差距更大。

????所以，中國私企高管滿腹牢騷也在情理之中。但由于擔心激怒政府，因此，極少有人愿意公開表示不滿。不過，根據《財富》雜志（Fortune）對中國私營企業CEO的采訪可以看出，他們對此憤懣不已?！拔覀冎荒芗南Ｍ谛乱粚谜▽⒂诿髂晟先危?，希望他們能夠了解這種失衡的狀況，做出必要的改變?！鳖A計新一任政府將由習近平擔任國家主席，李克強擔任國務院總理。但他們能否對私營企業的不滿做出回應，目前尚不明確。

????既然中國在經濟上獲得了成功，為什么必須對信貸分配政策進行徹底改革呢？對此，紐約榮鼎咨詢公司（Rhodium Group）的負責人榮大聶解釋道：“中國還有更大的發展潛力，但動力應該是來自創新，而不是增加像鋼鐵廠那樣的傳統重工業。問題在于，哪一種所有權模式（國營 vs. 私營）才能夠帶來這種增長？”大多數人都認為肯定是私營部門，未來，私企將比龐大的國企更高效、更具創新力。比如汽車行業的吉利（Geely）和電子商務領域的阿里巴巴（Alibaba）和淘寶（Taobao）。但由于中國信貸制度不平衡的頑疾根深蒂固，所以榮大聶不禁要問：“私企拿什么來創新？”

????這個問題至關重要。如果創新受阻，中國多年的經濟發展“奇跡”或將終結。

????（翻譯 劉進龍）

????The outside world is finally coming to grips with the realization that China has some serious economic problems of its own. Moody's recently issued a report saying that bad debts in the Chinese banking system could rise from 1.1% to as much as 12% of the nation's $7.83 trillion in total loans. The mounting bad-debt problem obscures an equally important, and related, phenomenon: For the past three years, at least, the huge credit explosion in China has overwhelmingly ended up in the hands of China's state-owned companies. In the wake of the global economic crisis, Beijing's state-owned banks have frantically shoveled money to their state-owned brethren in the hope of mitigating its impact (particularly on employment). A former executive at Bank of China remembers meeting with a branch manager in central China last year and asking him how much they were lending to local state-owned firms. The answer: "Whatever they want."

????By contrast, the private sector has been starved of capital. (Remarkably, no reliable data exist that parse state and private sector credit, but no one doubts it's a very lopsided picture.) To the extent that private firms have been able to get credit, they have to pay more for it. A study on China's A-share market by the brokerage firm CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets shows that the overall cost of capital (debt and equity financing) for big private firms is on average 100 basis points higher than for state-owned ones. For smaller companies, anecdotal evidence suggests the gap is much greater.

????Private sector executives in China, understandably, are not happy with this. Few are willing to stick their heads above the parapet and complain publicly for fear of angering the government. But to judge by conversations Fortune has had with CEOs of private companies, they're furious. "Our only hope is that the new government [which assumes power next year] understands this and makes the necessary changes." Whether that new government -- expected to be led by Xi Jinping as President and Li Keqiang as Premier -- will be responsive to those complaints is decidedly unclear.

????Given China's economic success, why does credit allocation need to be overhauled? As Daniel Rosen, principal at the New York consultancy Rhodium Group, puts it: "China has the potential for a lot more growth, but it needs to come now from innovation -- not more steel mills. The question is, Which ownership group [state vs. private] is capable of delivering that growth?" Most people feel it's the private sector, which over time tends to be more efficient and more innovative than big, state-owned companies. Think Geely in autos or Alibaba Taobao in e-commerce. But with the institutional bias in lending so entrenched, Rosen asks: "How do they make that happen?"

????That's the right question. And if it doesn't happen, China's "miracle" years of growth may be over.