由新興市場代表出任IMF總裁如何？

????如果你經常關注市場評論，就知道這些評論說什么的都有。有的充當拉拉隊，比如First Albany的休?約翰遜過去就是這樣。有的則是知識分子型，像《格蘭特利率觀察家》（Grant's Interest Rate Observer）的詹姆斯?格蘭特。格蘭特錯的時候和對的時候一樣多，但不管怎樣他的觀點都值得一讀。

????還有的是開出猛藥的拯救者(格蘭特當然也屬于此列)。我最喜歡的當屬里昂證券(CLSA)《貪婪與恐懼》(Greed & Fear)簡報的撰稿人克里斯托弗?伍德，這位前記者以華爾街罕見的敘述筆法寫作。不僅將新聞置入相應的背景之中，還會在必要時加入引人入勝的情節。他的最新著作是什么——在多米尼克?斯特勞斯-卡恩沸沸揚揚的辭職后，國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的新任總裁不應來自西方發達國家，而應來自那些將很快成為成為發達國家債主的國家。

????伍德的原話如下：“《貪婪與恐懼》必須承認，卡恩在重塑國際貨幣基金組織方面是非常成功的，他利用近期西方的金融危機，對早已失去存在理由的國際貨幣基金組織進行重新定位。不過，近期事件令《貪婪與恐懼》不能忽視同樣突出的利益沖突，即在國際貨幣基金組織積極參與協商歐洲地區頗為敏感的救助計劃之時，由下屆法國總統熱門候選人掌舵國際貨幣基金組織可能存在的利益沖突?，F實是在可預見的未來，國際貨幣基金組織的救助對象可能主要是債臺高筑的西方。僅憑這個原因，讓來自新興市場的代表出任該機構總裁就意義重大?！?/p>

????瞧，我不是富有自我批判精神的美國人。我只是幾年前才向星條旗宣誓效忠，因為和愛人結婚變成了一名美國人。但伍德是對的——不管美國，還是其歐洲盟友，眼下都沒有資格教導世界其他地區如何管理財政問題。

????據報道，法國財長克里斯汀?拉嘉德是取代卡恩的熱門人選。我想這是因為法國長期以來的經濟強國地位。戈登?布朗也表示希望一試。當然，這是基于當前英國經濟碰巧表現強勁。

????德國總理默克爾認為，下一任國際貨幣基金組織總裁應是歐洲人(其他很多歐洲人也這么想。多出人意料??！) 這當然是因為歐洲已用事實展現出他們知道如何管好自己的事務，包括歐元以及希臘、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭等賴賬人。嗨——別誤解我的意思。我可以理解非理性繁榮的后果，但肯定不會支持提名那些“敗家子”出任國際貨幣基金組織總裁一職。20世紀50年代以來擔任國際貨幣基金組織總裁的有一位比利時人，一位荷蘭人，幾位瑞典人，數位法國人，一位德國人，一位西班牙人和一些美國人。

????巴西如何？或者是一些經濟實力較強的非洲國家呢？還是說他們根本就只能匍匐于我們的揮霍無度？說得更直白一點，中國呢？中國人民銀行行長周小川認為，應考慮來自新興市場的候選人。你可以看到蒂姆?蓋特納和美國總統奧巴馬整天都在發表強硬的美元言論，這全是因為他們正面臨被中國經濟增長趕超的悲哀境地，后者不存在房地產泡沫。什么是真相？在主要經濟體中，中國是全球少數在2007/2008年未自食其言的國家之一。那么，在目前這樣的時候，向東方學習有什么不好呢？

????If you make a habit of reading market commentators, you know that they come in a number of forms. First, there are the cheerleaders. Hugh Johnson of First Albany used to serve this purpose. Second, the intellectuals. James Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer comes to mind. He's been wrong as often as he's been right, but he's a damn good read in either case.

????Third, the deliverers of harsh medicine. (Grant is also included in this category, of course.) My favorite of all: Christopher Wood, author of the Greed & Fear newsletter for Asia-Pacific brokerage CLSA. Wood, a former journalist, writes with a narrative flair that's perennially lacking on Wall Street. Not only does he put the news in proper context, he also suggests good storylines when they're needed. His latest? That in the wake of Dominique Strauss-Kahn's scandalous resignation, the new head of the International Monetary Fund shouldn't come from one of the West's "developed" nations, but from one of the countries likely to be one of our lenders in the near future.

????I'll let Wood say it for himself: "GREED & fear has to admit that Dominique Strauss-Kahn has proved extraordinarily successful in re-inventing the IMF by using the recent financial crisis in the West to re-invent the role of the IMF, an institution which had outlived its raison d'être. Still recent events have reminded GREED & fear of the equally extraordinary conflict of interest posed by a leading French presidential candidate heading the IMF at a time when the institution has been so heavily involved in negotiating politically sensitive bailouts in the European periphery. The reality is that for the foreseeable future IMF bailouts are likely to be taking place primarily in the debt-infested West. For that reason alone it makes sense for the head of the institution to hail from the 'emerging' world."

????Look, I'm no self-hating American. I just became one a few years back after marrying the love of my life and pledging allegiance to the flag. But Wood is right -- neither the U.S. nor its European pals is in any position to lecture the rest of the world on how to manage one's finances these days.

????Christine Lagarde, the finance minister of France, is reportedly the leading candidate to take DSK's post. I assume that's because France is such a perennial economic powerhouse. Gordon Brown also says he wants a chance at that action. Based, of course, on the fact that Britain is hitting on all economic cylinders these days.

????German Chancellor Angela Merkel thinks the next president of the IMF should be European. (As do a number of other Europeans. Quelle surprise!) That is, of course, because Europe has so demonstratively shown that they know how to manage their own affairs, including the Euro and the welshers known as the Greeks, the Portugese, and the Irish. Hey – don't get me wrong, I can understand the aftermath of irrational exuberance when I see it, but I certainly don't normally run around nominating people who drained the community coffers as head of the finance committee. Since the 1950s, we've had a Belgian, a Dutchman, a few Swedes, a handful of Frenchmen, a German, a Spaniard, and some Americans.

????What about Brazil? Or some of the stronger African states? Or are they just kneeling at the feet of our wisdom of profligacy? More to the point, what about someone from China? Zhou Xiaochaun, head of the People's Bank of China, thinks that candidates from the emerging world should be considered. You can watch Tim Geithner and President Obama talk the strong talk about our currency all day long, but you know it's all because they're faced with the sad state of being outflanked by a Chinese economic engine that didn't overdose on bogus real estate assets. Truth? Among major powers, the Chinese are pretty much the only ones in the world who didn't choke on their own crap in 2007/2008. So what would be so bad about some Eastern learning at a time like this?