IMF將油價預期上調20%

????今年的油價上漲使國際貨幣基金組織不得不面對能源市場極度緊張的事實。

????國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）本周一宣布，預計今年全球平均油價將為107美元/桶，明年為108美元/桶。最新預測比上次預測高出了20%，原因是2010年全球石油需求增長超預期，而供應響應滯后。

????即便是在Facebook上，也沒有出現過這樣的趨勢

????國際貨幣基金組織在最新發布的《全球經濟前景》（World Economic Outlook）半年度報告相關章節中指出，去年全球石油需求增長了3.4%。這是自2004年以來最快的增速，比國際貨幣基金組織2010年初的預期快了一倍。

????與此同時，原油供應“對需求持續增長反應遲緩，主要反映了歐佩克（OPEC）的政策立場，”該組織指出。

????國際貨幣基金組織認為，當前的高油價若維持現有水平，對全球經濟增長應僅有“輕微影響”。但承認經濟增長的主要下行風險是如果供應中斷，油價上漲可能超預期。

????近幾個月，我們已看到過有幾次這樣的情況了，油價上漲顯然超乎該組織的預料。去年秋季國際貨幣基金組織曾預計今年平均油價將為78美元。在埃及政治動蕩引發年初油價大漲后，1月份該組織將預期調高到了89美元。

????但如今，油價在紐約交易中報112美元，在倫敦交易中報126美元，即便中東緊張局勢和美國汽油需求已有所緩解。同時，國際貨幣基金組織警告稱，如果供應中斷導致油價新一輪上漲，可能摧毀脆弱的全球經濟復蘇態勢。

????為此，國際貨幣基金組織對全球經濟進行了壓力測試，分析油價為150美元/桶時可能出現的情況。2008年夏季油價飆升至147美元，被普遍視為是對全球經濟活動的一大打擊，但很難確切說明打擊有多大，因為當時金融系統在同一時間也陷入了危機。

????國際貨幣基金組織稱，如果2011年油價漲到那樣的高位，隨后一年回落，將導致發達經濟體增速放緩0.75個百分點，該組織對發達經濟體今年的經濟增長率預期是2.5%。對其他地區的影響可能有所不同，亞洲和拉美的經濟增速可能放緩，而中東由于石油出口收入增加，經濟增長可能加快。

????但這類似于最佳或最差情景?！叭绻凸袛酄顩r持續，全球的產值損失將會大得多，”國際貨幣基金組織警告稱。

????該組織指出了可能導致此類供應中斷的一種情況，即世界其他地區可能高估了以沙特阿拉伯為首的歐佩克成員國提高產量、滿足全球需求增長的能力。如果歐佩克的閑置產能低于我們的預期，那么任何時候任何一個產油國出現變故，油價飆升的可能性將更大。

????“2010年12月-2011年1月當油價逼近100美元/桶關口時，歐佩克增加了原油產量——這表明歐佩克成員國仍對油價的加速上漲有擔憂?！眹H貨幣基金組織寫道，“不管怎樣，油價上行突破70-80美元區間后歐佩克未做出有力的增產反應，已令市場對歐佩克產油國從不言明的目標價格區間有了些許不確定?！?/p>

????事實上，要說市場對于歐佩克的意圖有些不確定，可能還說輕了，更別提對其能力的不確定了。

????This year's oil price spike has dragged the IMF kicking and screaming into the world of overstressed energy markets.

????The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it expects the global oil price to average $107 a barrel this year and $108 next. That's 20% above its previous forecast, thanks to stronger-than-expected global petroleum growth in 2010 and a less than enthusiastic supply response.

????Even on Facebook, this trend isn't your friend

????Global oil demand rose 3.4% last year, the IMF said in the latest release of chapters from its semiannual World Economic Outlook report. That's the fastest pace since 2004 and double the rate IMF forecasters projected at the start of 2010.

????Meanwhile, the supply of crude oil "is responding sluggishly to the ongoing pickup in demand, largely reflecting the policy stance of OPEC," the IMF said.

????The IMF said it believes the high prices, if sustained at current levels, should have only a "mild effect" on global economic growth. But it conceded that "the key downside risk to growth relates to the potential for oil prices to surprise further on the upside because of supply disruptions."

????We have seen a few of those in recent months, to the IMF's apparent surprise. The agency predicted last fall that the oil price would average $78 this year. After an early year spike spurred by the political meltdown in Egypt, it raised that forecast to $89 in January.

????But now, oil is trading at $112 in New York and $126 in London, even as Middle East anxiety recedes -- along with U.S. gasoline demand. And the IMF is warning that another supply shock-driven surge in prices could undo a fragile global recovery.

????To that end, the IMF ran a stress test on the global economy to determine how it might deal with oil at $150 a barrel. The summer spike to $147 in 2008 is widely seen as having dealt a blow to economic activity, though it's hard to say for sure how big a hit that was since the financial system was coming undone at the same time.

????The IMF said a surge to that level in 2011, with prices falling back next year, could wipe 0.75 percentage point off its forecast for economic growth in advanced economies, which it currently sees expanding 2.5% this year. The impact would be varied elsewhere, with Asia and Latin America slowing but the Middle East gaining as oil export revenue rose.

????That is sort of a best-case worst-case scenario, however. "Global output losses would be much larger in the event of a permanent shock to oil supply," the IMF warns.

????The IMF hints at one possible source of such a disruption – the prospect that the rest of the world is overestimating the capacity of OPEC nations led by Saudi Arabia to boost production to meet growing global demand. If OPEC's spare production cushion is thinner than we think, prices are going to be much more apt to surge any time we see a flare-up in an oil-producing country.

????"The acceleration in OPEC crude oil production in December 2010 and January 2011 — when oil prices were closing in on the $100 a barrel threshold — suggests that OPEC members remain concerned about accelerated price increases," the IMF writes. "Nevertheless, the absence of an elastic production response when prices moved beyond the $70–$80 range has led to some uncertainty in markets about OPEC producers' implicit price targets."

????To say there's some uncertainty over OPEC's intentions, let alone its capabilities, is something of an understatement.