摩根大通如何贏得AT&T交易

????憑借著為美國電話電報公司（AT&T）390億美元收購T-Mobile的交易提供咨詢服務，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）在2011年并購市場頭把交椅的地位進一步得到鞏固。很多評論認為，摩根大通在此宗交易中提供的200億美元橋式貸款顯然是其擊敗并購市場常年領頭羊高盛（Goldman Sachs）和摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的重要利器。但事實是：無論是提供額外融資的交易，還是不提供額外融資的交易，摩根大通都居于并購市場首位。

????近日我有幸采訪到了摩根大通投行業務主管杰斯?斯特利，請他談談他們在這方面有何獨到之處。

????客戶之所以選擇像摩根大通這樣的大銀行，部分原因就是你們可以在像這樣的交易中提供多種資源，包括利用你們自己的資產負債表。這是否幫助你們獲得這樣的交易?

????我們銀行能基于廣泛的產品組合和全球覆蓋網絡，提供綜合性的服務，這是客戶選擇我們的一個重要因素。我們銀行在股票、信貸和風險管理市場以及策略咨詢服務領域的地位，當然也是客戶所看重的。而且，我們可以提供這些。

????你們是如何協調好所有這些因素，特別是在同高盛這樣的公司競爭時，它們可能只提供并購咨詢？這肯定會讓爭取交易的過程非常復雜。

????我們不是一家由任何個人領導的投資銀行。我們現在能提供這么多的產品和服務，離不開團隊的協同工作，離不開客戶的信任，客戶相信我們提供融資以及向其董事會做出策略建議的能力。第一個有關美國電話電報公司這筆交易的電話是我們的資深電信業銀行家庫特?西蒙接的。我們還有很棒的銀團貸款團隊，由安迪?奧布萊恩擔綱——整個團隊在有需要時都會全力以赴。當像這樣的交易相關郵件發送時，會有很長的抄送名單。

????面對這樣規模的交易，我們的反應就像面臨電視直播大賽的田徑運動員。這位運動員經過多年的訓練，才站到這場大賽的起跑線上。去年，我們在并購市場排名第四，市場對我們的這項業務實力有了一些疑問。但從去年到現在，我們的并購業務并沒有發生變化，還是圍繞著我們的客戶在做什么，我們能不能幫客戶完成交易。我們很高興能完成像這樣的交易，特別是如果我們的融資能力能提供幫助的話。這就是我們一貫出色的并購業務。

????人們總是說，像這樣的大交易預示著更多的交易。你認為是這樣嗎？你怎么看并購市場？

????我認為，我們正處于拐點。2008/2009年金融危機時期，企業都是基于對市場狀況的高度擔憂在管理資產負債表和策略舉措。2010年時企業還在繼續盡可能地鞏固資產負債表——你可能也聽到很多大公司坐擁大筆現金的傳聞。當時人們已為復蘇做好了準備，但還沒有進行投資。

????我認為，這宗交易說明很多董事會都日益意識到，雖然全球仍有諸多政治挑戰，但經濟復蘇已步入正軌。首席執行長和董事會必須將手里的錢用起來或返還股東，當前公司間戰略層面的對話很多。人們愿意將手里的錢用起來。事實上，金融市場支持像美國電話電報公司這樣的標桿企業實施如此大手筆的戰略性舉措，無疑是一個積極信號。去年我就認為必和必拓（BHP Billiton）試圖以400億美元收購Potash Corporation的交易傳遞出了類似的信號。但現在情況更好了。來自華盛頓的聲音相對更樂觀了，董事會也更放心考慮戰略性投資了。

????我看到（摩根大通首席執行官）杰米?戴蒙昨天在日本。當前整個危機對你們的日本業務有怎樣的影響？

????只有身處日本，你才知道大地震后余震持續了多少天。人們當時認為我們的東京大樓可能會倒塌。但沒人離開崗位。非常了不起的是在大樓晃動、輻射傳言盛行的同時，市場保持了繼續運轉。我們東京辦公室的負責人在大地震后首夜就收到了我們路易斯安那州商業銀行業務負責人的電子郵件。他們每天都在進行溝通，大量談到卡特里娜颶風（Katrina）以及如何應對這類危機?？吹竭@些很讓人鼓舞。

????市場的反應不是很極端，即便日元確實漲了一些，油價一如既往地波動。你認為大地震后你們銀行的穩定性是否受到任何威脅？

????我們一直對業務有壓力測試。從美元/日元逼近76的那天起，伴隨著中東局勢升級，我們就一直在考慮做些什么。你在管理風險頭寸時必須假設很多事情都可能很快變糟，而且會同時變糟。但即便是危機時期，我們也需要在那里提供資本。既然我們可以為美國電話電報公司提供200億美元橋式貸款，我們也能在當前這樣的時期在日本提供大量資本。在世界連續遭遇打擊的時候，我們能夠繼續提供資本是很重要的。

????好吧，最后讓我們來談一個熱點話題吧，就是Facebook和其他科技公司的估值。我們看到的是另一個泡沫嗎？

????任何時候如果股票估值是基于未經證實的收入模式，你一定要睜大雙眼。但分析不能脫離當時的大環境。在Netscape瀏覽器剛推出時，美國互聯網用戶總人數約1,000萬。然而到Facebook最近融資時，僅埃及其用戶就已達800萬人。我們可能遲早會看到Facebook估值的合理性。

????With its role advising AT&T on its proposed $39 billion purchase of T-Mobile, JPMorgan Chase has solidified its lead atop the mergers and acquisitions league tables in 2011. There's been a lot of talk about the $20 billion bridge loan that JPMorgan Chase threw in as part of the deal -- an obvious and important competitive tool in outflanking perennial M&A front-runners Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS). But here's the thing: they're leading the league tables both in deals in which they've provided additional financing and those in which they didn't.

????I caught up with JPMorgan investment bank chief Jes Staley to find out just what they're putting in the bankers' water over there.

????Part of the rationale for a big bank like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is the multiple capabilities that you can offer in a deal like this, including using your balance sheet. Does it help you get mandates like this one?

????The range of what this bank can do with both its product set as well as its global reach is a strength that clients like us to have. The position of the bank in the equity, credit, and risk management markets as well as strategic advisory services is certainly something that clients look for. And we can provide it.

????How do you get all the moving parts in sync, especially when you're competing against someone like Goldman, who might just offer M&A advisory? It must make for a very complicated pitch process.

????We're not an investment bank led by any one individual. You can't deliver the range of products and services we have unless you're doing it as a team, and your clients are confident in both your ability to provide financing and strategic advice to their boards. The first call on the AT&T (T) deal came into our senior telecom banker, Kurt Simon. We also have a terrific syndicated loan group -- led by Andy O'Brien -- that stepped up when they needed to. When emails about a transaction like this go around, it's a long cc: list.

????The reaction to a deal of this size is like the athlete that runs the big race with the TV cameras rolling. But that athlete has been training for years to be in the position to take the race. Last year we were 4th in the M&A league tables, and we got a lot of questions about the strength of our franchise. But there's no difference in our franchise from last year through today. It's all about what our clients are doing and whether we can help them get transactions done. It's great when something like this can happen, especially if we can help out with our ability to put up capital. But it's the same strong franchise it's always been.

????People always talk about a big deal like this auguring more deals. Do you think that's the case? What does the M&A market look like to you?

????I think we are at an inflection point. Back in the financial crisis of 2008/2009, companies were managing their balance sheets and strategic moves based on a high level of concern with the state of the markets. In 2010, companies continued to get their balance sheets as strong as they could -- you noticed a lot of talk about levels of cash held by major corporations. People were getting ready for a recovery, but they weren't investing yet.

????I think this transaction is reflective of the fact that in boardrooms we're seeing an emerging consensus that despite the many political challenges around the world, the recovery is well on its way. CEOs and boards have to put their cash to work or return it to shareholders, and the level of strategic dialogue is quite high today. People are willing to put money to work. The fact that the financial markets support an iconic company like AT&T is making a big strategic move that can't help be anything but a positive sign. I thought we had that this kind of signal with the attempted $40 billion deal between BHP Billiton (BHP) and Potash Corporation (POT) last year. But it's better now. There's a better tone out of Washington, and boards are more comfortable thinking about strategic investments.

????I saw that Jamie Dimon was in Japan yesterday. How has the whole crisis affected your operations in the country?

????You know, only if you were there did you realize that after the quake, there were follow-on quakes for days on end. People thought our building in Tokyo might go down. But no one left their desks. The remarkable thing is that the markets continued working at the same time you had buildings shaking and rampant rumors of radiation. You know, the guy who runs our Tokyo office got an email the first night after the quake from the guy who heads our commercial bank business in Louisiana. They communicated daily, with a lot about Katrina and about how to deal with this kind of crisis. It was inspiring to see that.

????The market reaction wasn't too extreme, even if the yen did surge for a bit and oil was as volatile as ever. Did you see any threats to the stability of the bank in the aftermath of the quake?

????We stress test our business all the time. From the day when the yen came close to 76 and with roiling Middle East challenges, we are always looking at what we might need to do. You have to manage your risk positions with the assumption that a lot of things can go wrong quickly and at once. Even in times of stress, we need to be there providing capital. The scale that allows us to do a $20 billion bridge loan for AT&T also allows us to provide significant amounts of capital in Japan at a moment like this. When the world is getting buffeted, the fact that we can continue to be a provider of capital is big deal.

????Okay, let's finish with everybody's favorite topic, the valuation of Facebook and other tech companies. Are we looking at another bubble?

????Any time that valuations are being driven by a revenue model that has yet to be proven, you need to keep both eyes open. But keep things in context. When Netscape launched, we were talking about a total of 10 million Internet users in the United States. When Facebook did its recent deal, it was being used by eight million people in Egypt alone. We might see justification of that valuation yet.