沙特能否拯救油市？

????上周二，暴亂橫掃利比亞，導致國際油價飆升。利比亞是全球第18大石油生產國，利比亞動亂預示該國石油開采可能中斷。

????Oil prices spiked Tuesday as violence swept Libya, raising the prospect that the world's 18th-biggest oil producer could be taken off line.

????為了緩解國際社會對石油供應震蕩的恐懼，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）承諾將在必要的時候動用石油儲備，并增加產量。不過國際能源署（The International Energy Agency）表示：“從目前的處境來看，這一舉措并不必要?！?/p>

????盡管如此，投資者顯然還是希望石油輸出國組織能夠挺身而出，在油價上漲到更高位前，能有所作為。上周二，原油期貨交易價格在紐約達到了98美元，在倫敦更是達到了107美元，這也是自2008年以來的最高水平。美國的汽油價格近來在略高于3美元（每加侖）的價格區間浮動，不過現在看來，汽油價格有望在今年夏天上漲到3.5美元甚至更高。

????經濟學家愛德華?亞德尼上周二在他的博客上寫道：“我預期石油輸出國組織將生產更多的石油，以避免油價的飆升。他們應盡力減少能源價格上漲所導致的全球不穩定性，這也符合他們的利益?！?/p>

????沒人懷疑亞德尼的邏輯。不過有石油觀察人士質疑道：石油輸出國組織是否有能力提高石油產量，并在較長的時間內保持這種高產量？

????對于石油輸出國組織的產能的質疑主要集中沙特阿拉伯身上。沙特阿拉伯是世界上最大的石油出口國，2009年，沙特生產的石油占全球石油產量的12%，而且這還不算它的閑置產能。沙特預計其閑置產能大約在每天200萬桶左右，不過美國政府表示，沙特的閑置產能要“遠遠高于”這個目標。

????這些言論表明，嚴重依賴于石油的全球經濟不必因為上周的油價飆升而過分擔憂。

????不過并非所有人都相信這些話。杰弗里?布朗是美國達拉斯地區的一位石油工程師，他就對沙特能滿足全球石油需求的論調表示懷疑。

????OPEC sought to ease fears of a supply shock, promising to release reserves and increase production if need be. The International Energy Agency said "we are not in a situation where that is necessary."

????Even so, investors are clearly expecting OPEC to step into the breach soon before oil prices rise further. Futures contracts hit $98 in New York Tuesday and $107 in London – the highest level since 2008. Gasoline prices, recently in the low $3-and-change range, look poised to run to $3.50 or higher this summer.

????"I still expect that OPEC nations will pump more oil to avert a spike in oil prices," economist Ed Yardeni wrote Tuesday on his blog. "It is in their interest to do what they can to reduce global instability caused by higher fuel prices."

????No one doubts his logic. But some oil watchers question whether OPEC is actually capable of boosting production and keeping it there for a long time.

????The questions about OPEC's capacity center on the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia. The Saudis accounted for 12% of global oil production in 2009, and that doesn't count their spare capacity. Saudi Arabia estimates that buffer at 2 million barrels a day, though the U.S. government says Saudi spare capacity is "well above" that stated target.

????Those comments suggest an oil-addicted global economy has little to worry about from this week's price spike.

????But not everyone is convinced. Jeffrey Brown, a Dallas-area petroleum engineer, questions the assumption that the Saudis can meet the world's needs.

????He notes that Saudi production has declined in three of the four years since it peaked at middecade – including an 11% plunge in 2009. At the same time, Saudi oil consumption has soared, making it the 15th-biggest petroleum consumer as of 2008, according to U.S. government data.

????布朗指出，沙特的產量在2005年左右達到頂峰，而在此后的四年里，有三年都出現了下降，在2009年甚至下降了11%。與此同時，沙特的石油消費卻出現了激增。根據美國政府的數據，自2008年以來，沙特已經成了全球第15大石油消費國。

????布朗預計今年沙特的石油消費量將達到每天300萬桶，比2005年增長50%。目前全世界對石油的需求越來越大，而沙特國內每消費一桶原油，就意味著它可供出口的原油又減少了一桶。

????這意味著沙特要想把出口恢復到2005年左右的全盛水平，就必須要扭轉幾年以來的下跌趨勢，創造新的產量紀錄。

????要想達到2005年每天出口910萬桶原油的紀錄，沙特在2011年必須每天生產1210萬桶原油。這幾乎比沙特最高年產量還多出10%。

????這可是一筆大“訂單”，不過目前并沒有特別跡象表明沙特可以執行這筆“訂單”。這似乎暗示了油價還會繼續上漲，這對恢復之勢甚為疲軟的美國經濟來說可不是好消息，因為美國經濟的恢復是建立在全球經濟強勢增長的基礎上的。

????石油輸出國組織能否長期保持高產，這個已經讓石油觀察人士困擾了一段時間的問題，可能明年就會見分曉。如果屆時結果正如布朗所預料的那樣，那么油價還會漲得更高。

????布朗表示：“如果其它石油國家的生產也受到了干擾——但不是在沙特阿拉伯，那么最終我們可能會明確地得知，沙特究竟可以在可持續的基礎上生產多少原油?！辈贿^從最近的中東局勢看來，就連這一點也不能保證。

????譯者：樸成奎

????Brown estimates Saudi consumption will hit 3 million barrels a day this year – up 50% from 2005. Every barrel consumed at home is one the Saudis cannot export to fill booming demand for fuel.

????That means the Saudis will have reverse years of decline and, indeed, set new production records just to bring their exports back to levels regularly seen during the good old days of the middle of the past decade.

????In order to simply match their 2005 export peak of 9.1 million barrels a day, the Saudis would have to pump 12.1 million barrels a day in 2011. That's almost 10% above the kingdom's highest output for a year.

????That is a pretty big order to fill, with no particular sign that the Saudis can fill it. Those numbers seem to point toward higher oil prices, which is not good news for a weak U.S. recovery predicated on strong global growth.

????The next year may also bring the answer to a question that has puzzled petrol watchers for some time. If the answer is the one Brown is expecting, even higher prices look like a good bet.

????"We might finally find out for sure what the Saudis can produce on a sustained basis," Brown says, "if there are production disruptions elsewhere, but not in Saudi Arabia." And the way things are going in the Middle East lately, even that is no sure thing.